With the global recession being just a coincidence for Ireland, whose exports have actually grown this year, what will the likely impact of any global recovery be? This post explores two sets of scenarios, a global dream/snooze/nightmare and a domestic equivalent. Given the nature of Ireland’s economy and its exporting sector, even a global dream recovery is likely to have little economic impact in Ireland. It’s the domestic consumer that will drive our next phase of growth.
This post outlines David Begg’s op-ed in the Irish Times today, challenging the ‘Dublin Consensus’ on the necessity of a real devaluation and public expenditure cuts, and some of the principal reactions online so far, including the Irish Economy and thepropertypin.
I’ve always had a soft spot for song parodies, as longer established readers of the blog will probably ruefully attest. My last foray into this territory with my economic hat on was “Brother, Can you bail out my bank?” in the midst of our global financial excitement last Autumn (although I did try my hand [...]
New data from the CSO show in starkest terms the pay gap between public and private sectors. The evidence is now overwhelming that public sector workers enjoy a massive salary premium, which given the state of the country’s finances can no longer be afforded.
Some excellent recent posts from two of the best in the Irish economics blogosphere: True Economics and Turbulence Ahead.
With talk of an imminent property tax, people are trying to make the case that ‘Ireland is different’ – it’s possible elsewhere but not here. This post outlines some of the most common difficulties people raise, and how to overcome them.
S&P has downgraded Ireland’s debt rating – again – while latest Government figures show that Ireland faces a €12bn hole in its tax revenues this year, compared to 2007. This post outlines where the hole has come from and how it can be tackled. This will require an open debate, though, which will involve sacred cows such as Ireland’s corporate tax rate and a property tax.
Ireland's €12bn tax hole in 2009, by taxation type
In this post, I take a look at the maths behind buying or renting. Amazingly, even in heady market of 2006, it was cheaper to buy than rent. With rates back down at very low rates, and generous mortgage interest relief, it is once again cheaper to buy than rent – and looks set to stay that way, unless there are significant changes to the tax system.
Annual savings for owning rather than renting, 2006-2009
My recent post on negative equity led to some discussions, particularly on irisheconomy.ie, about the financial (i.e. NAMA) and labour market (i.e. dole) implications of negative equity. Here, I use Live Register figures to work out which counties have been affected most by unemployment since the start of the recession. A group of counties from Laois up to Cavan appear worst affected, although all counties have seen unemployment at least double.
Unemployment in Ireland by county, April 2009 compared to 2005/2006
An overview of how much the typical worker is taxed in Ireland, compared to the rest of the OECD, reveals Irish workers to have a significantly lower tax burden than the OECD peers. The trend of lower and lower since 2000, so that the average industrial worker was actually subsidised in 2007, now appears not only unsustainable but also reckless.
