Ronan Lyons | Personal Website
Ronan Lyons | Personal Website

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  • PAUL LYONS ,

    Hi Ronan
    I am aware of your work since the ’08 crash and believe you to be very knowledgable in the area of the hosing market . I have a very important question to ask , well important to me anyway. If we have a similar or worse global financial market crash by the end of this year ’15 as I suspect is starting to occur right now, (China = start, US/EU will follow). How long do you think it will take to filter into the irish market and start to depress prices , Immediate , 3 months or 6 months. I cant remeber how it played out in ’08 date wise.

    Appreciate your thoughts on both the crash and if it happens the knock on effect.
    Cheers
    Paul

    • Ronan Lyons ,

      Hi Paul,
      It took quite a while for the initial negative shock in the US housing market (in 2005/2006) to feed through into the Irish economy and housing market (with a slowdown starting in 2007 followed by contraction from 2008 in house prices, employment and GDP). The biggest factor pushing down house prices 2007-2012 was hugely revised expectations about future growth – if expectations about economic/house price growth in Ireland are muted anyway, perhaps this will mean any future crash differs somewhat from the recent Financial Crisis. Hope that helps!
      Ronan.

      • PAUL LYONS ,

        Ronan
        Thanks for feedback

        • John Reid ,

          Recent headlines lead with statements like ‘the average rent in Dublin now is eg €1500 per month’. This representation of the content of your Daft report is never disputed. The suggestion is therefore that the average rent being paid for ALL rentals in Dublin is €1,500. Is this correct? For my own part I had understood that the €1500 was the average of NEW rentals which I expect represent only a small fraction of ALL rentals. Which is correct?If my understanding is correct why do you not clarify the position in your many media interviews?
          I have always imagined the Dublin rental market as a pint of Guinness , with a relatively small head. The head represents the renewal market ie the frothy bit. Underneath is the black stuff , the vast majority, which represents the settled market where existing leases are renewed subject to PRTB rules. The average rent in this black bit is unknown but as a small and conscientious landlord I expect it is far below the widely trumpeted €1500. Am I incorrect?

          Regards

          John Reid

          • Ronan Lyons ,

            Hi John,
            Yes, that’s right – the report covers market rent, not rents for sitting tenants. When average lease length was less than two years, which would have been the case, say, 10 years ago, the difference was not particular important. However, the tightness of supply, coupled with various additional regulations (such as RPZs) have pushed up lease length to 4-5 years on average. For that reason, later this year, a ‘stayers’ rental index will be launched alongside the ‘movers’ rent index.
            Hope that helps,
            Ronan.

            • John Reid ,

              Hi Ronan

              Thanks for the reply.

              I will be very interested in the ‘stayers’ index
              as I feel it will give a better picture of rents
              being paid by the majority of tenants. The
              current process in my view distorts the true
              position giving rise to sensationalist headlines
              and fuels unfairly a broad anti- landlord lobby.
              I would be interested to know however how
              you propose to get the information to create
              the ‘stayers’ index. Is that info available given
              than the existing index I understand is already
              only based on asking rather than actual rents?
              For example in my own case I have property
              whose rent was below market ( good tenants) when RPZs were introduced and are now statutorily restricted far far below the market rent – based on DAFT asking prices. I expect I am not alone in this among landlords the vast majority of who I believe comply with RPZ rules despite constant media suggestions to the contrary. Will you be able to access details of such cases?

              Regards

              John

              • John Reid ,

                Hi Ronan
                I am sorry you have not had the time to outline the basis on which you propose to compute the proposed ‘stayers index’.
                In the absence of such an index I suggest that your executive summary ( such as that of 12 May 2019 with the Daft report) should contain a clear statement as to its limitations.
                Specifically that it does not include the rents being paid by stayers who constitute xx% of the market . It does not therefore represent the average rents being paid in Dublin as the excluded stayers rents are mostly subject to RPZ rules and likely to be materially lower. This would greatly assist the casual reader/ media who I believe do not go much beyond your summary or appreciate the limitations of your survey.

                Regards

                John

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