Ronan, part of the reason for Kildare and Meath looking so bad may be that they started off with a lower than average unemployment rate, so an increase in unemployment that would have come out as doubling in some other counties, might have come out as trebling there. QNHS data shows the average unemployment rate in the Mid-East region in 2005-6 was the lowest in the country at 3.3%. Three times this is about 10%, which is less than twice the 2005-06 unemployment rate for the Border and South-East regions, and is not much more than twice the 2005-06 unemployment rates for Dublin and the Mid-West.
Thanks again for the comment. You’re right – that may indeed be the case. Next step is unemployment rates (rather than increases) – what I wanted to show here is which counties have been most ‘caught off guard’. For example, if 6% unemployment was par for the course in some counties, going to 12% is a shock but less of a shock a county where 4% is normal (particular if the first 3% is typically described as people switching jobs).
As Stephen Kinsella put it, “The visualisation is brilliant, as it gets the point across well-the lower middle classes have gotten shafted in this.”
Con
,
Sitting here, looking at stats, what’s clear to me is that most of us have been shafted, but the group in biggest trouble is the construction trades workers who have taken the worst of the career hits as well as possibly the worst of the negative equity hits. Thousands of them chose to become apprentices rather than going to college. Half of them now have no future in construction in Ireland, and that’s an optimistic view. Given the pattern of past growth in the industry, it is likely that an exceptionally large proportion of them bought their first home in the last few years, and are either in negative equity now, or are threatened by it.
So if you’re including construction tradespeople among the lower middle classes, I’ll happily agree with you.
[…] Where in Ireland has seen the biggest increase in unemployment? […]
John Devereaux
,
I am curious to know how many of the unemployed in Ireland are non nationals ????.
I read recently that one in four of those unemployed are non nationals.
This makes me wonder that if the level of unemployment in the country now stands at almost 12% and say 400,000 are those, then, 100,000 non nationals are a percentage of those figures. Am I right.
If so and if the government plan to cut social welfare payments by 10% which will effect nationals in particular. What steps are the government going to take to protect the nationals from entering the extremities of say the “lower socio-economic group members” whilst dealing with the increasing numbers of now unemployed non nationals ????.
Will the non nationals opt to return to their own countries and save Old Ireland a few bob to throw to the outstretched hands of the native Irish ???.
Will the Irish government opt to struggle in this climate to support the non nationals with social welfare payments etc or will their own countries opt to subsidise the social payment to those ex patrots ???.
Why so many non nationals on the Irish dole que ???
Hi AJ,
Thanks for the comment. I’ve seen the ESRI analysis and they’re using largely the same method and sources, which are the best ones we have. The difference here is that I’m trying something a little more ambitious (a county-by-county breakdown hence use of daft.ie data, as opposed to ESRI data). This is likely to mean that there’s probably greater room for error here with 26 estimates than with one headline estimate, although you’ll notice the national totals are similar enough.
R
Con ,
Ronan, part of the reason for Kildare and Meath looking so bad may be that they started off with a lower than average unemployment rate, so an increase in unemployment that would have come out as doubling in some other counties, might have come out as trebling there. QNHS data shows the average unemployment rate in the Mid-East region in 2005-6 was the lowest in the country at 3.3%. Three times this is about 10%, which is less than twice the 2005-06 unemployment rate for the Border and South-East regions, and is not much more than twice the 2005-06 unemployment rates for Dublin and the Mid-West.
ronanlyons ,
Hi Con,
Thanks again for the comment. You’re right – that may indeed be the case. Next step is unemployment rates (rather than increases) – what I wanted to show here is which counties have been most ‘caught off guard’. For example, if 6% unemployment was par for the course in some counties, going to 12% is a shock but less of a shock a county where 4% is normal (particular if the first 3% is typically described as people switching jobs).
As Stephen Kinsella put it, “The visualisation is brilliant, as it gets the point across well-the lower middle classes have gotten shafted in this.”
Con ,
Sitting here, looking at stats, what’s clear to me is that most of us have been shafted, but the group in biggest trouble is the construction trades workers who have taken the worst of the career hits as well as possibly the worst of the negative equity hits. Thousands of them chose to become apprentices rather than going to college. Half of them now have no future in construction in Ireland, and that’s an optimistic view. Given the pattern of past growth in the industry, it is likely that an exceptionally large proportion of them bought their first home in the last few years, and are either in negative equity now, or are threatened by it.
So if you’re including construction tradespeople among the lower middle classes, I’ll happily agree with you.
How many mortgage-holders are faced with unemployment? « Ronan Lyons | Blog ,
[…] Where in Ireland has seen the biggest increase in unemployment? […]
John Devereaux ,
I am curious to know how many of the unemployed in Ireland are non nationals ????.
I read recently that one in four of those unemployed are non nationals.
This makes me wonder that if the level of unemployment in the country now stands at almost 12% and say 400,000 are those, then, 100,000 non nationals are a percentage of those figures. Am I right.
If so and if the government plan to cut social welfare payments by 10% which will effect nationals in particular. What steps are the government going to take to protect the nationals from entering the extremities of say the “lower socio-economic group members” whilst dealing with the increasing numbers of now unemployed non nationals ????.
Will the non nationals opt to return to their own countries and save Old Ireland a few bob to throw to the outstretched hands of the native Irish ???.
Will the Irish government opt to struggle in this climate to support the non nationals with social welfare payments etc or will their own countries opt to subsidise the social payment to those ex patrots ???.
Why so many non nationals on the Irish dole que ???
AJ Bowe ,
Ronan,
Have you analysed the ESRI data on negative equity? Do you think it is a fair analysis?
Ronan Lyons ,
Hi AJ,
Thanks for the comment. I’ve seen the ESRI analysis and they’re using largely the same method and sources, which are the best ones we have. The difference here is that I’m trying something a little more ambitious (a county-by-county breakdown hence use of daft.ie data, as opposed to ESRI data). This is likely to mean that there’s probably greater room for error here with 26 estimates than with one headline estimate, although you’ll notice the national totals are similar enough.
R