Ronan Lyons | Personal Website
Ronan Lyons | Personal Website

August 2009

Will a global economic recovery be Ireland’s panacea? Dreams (and nightmares) for 2010

With the global recession being just a coincidence for Ireland, whose exports have actually grown this year, what will the likely impact of any global recovery be? This post explores two sets of scenarios, a global dream/snooze/nightmare and a domestic equivalent. Given the nature of Ireland’s economy and its exporting sector, even a global dream recovery is likely to have little economic impact in Ireland. It’s the domestic consumer that will drive our next phase of growth. Read more

“Killiney mansions – get ’em while they’re cheap!” Tiered house prices in Ireland

Evidence from tiered house price indices in the US suggests that cheaper districts have fallen by more since the boom ended. In Ireland, however, the opposite appears to be the case, as this post discusses. Asking prices for four-beds in Killiney have fallen over 35% in just over a year. Looking at four areas, two high-end (Dublin 6 and Blackrock) and two first-time-buyer (Lucan and Balbriggan) over a longer period shows again that 2009 has taken its toll on the top end much more so than more affordable areas. Read more

Are incomes rising or falling? Have your say!

This post reviews Ireland’s relatively sparse wage data for signs of a real devaluation (or not), before discussing some of the problems in waiting for official data. To light a candle, rather than curse the darkness, the post includes a short poll for readers to complete, on employment and earnings. A successful take-up of the poll would be a real contribution to the debate on earnings in Ireland. Read more

Top end of the market hit the hardest as rents continue to fall

The latest Daft report was released this morning. It shows rents falling all around the country, good news no doubt for new and returning students. This post reviews some of the latest trends in the rental market, including the growing urban-rural divergence, the relative importance of confidence and affordability as factors determining rents, and the potential impact of over-construction on rents beyond the short term. Read more

Is China de-industrializing the rest of world economy?

China’s growth over the last generation – and the current prolonged slowdown in growth in the OECD – have meant a greater research interest in China and its global economic impact. This post reviews research on whether China has de-industrialized other developing countries. The research suggests it has but that this effect has been swamped by other more important effects. The post concludes by questioning the traditional importance attached to manufacturing. Read more

Turkeys voting for Christmas? The people call for (major) tax hikes

Last week, over 200 people filled out a simple quiz on Ireland’s tax system. The results are revealing. As one might expect, people think the system is far less progressive than it actually is and that the typical worker is paying a significant amount more in tax than they actually are. Perhaps the more surprising result is the broad consensus across all groupings about what the tax burden on typical workers should be: 23%, rather than the current 4%. Read more