True turbulence… recommended reading
Some excellent recent posts from two of the best in the Irish economics blogosphere: True Economics and Turbulence Ahead. Read more
The global recession is just a coincidence for Ireland
The latest export figures for Ireland show an increase over a year ago, a feat unique in the EU and the OECD. These only serve to reinforce the local, rather than global, circumstances of Ireland’s recession. If Ireland truly were a victim of collapsing global demand, the GDP fall this year would be closer to 20%. Read more
Ireland’s property market musical chairs
The volume of transactions may be a good indicator of how overheated a property market is. Figures on completions, housing stock and mortgage approvals allow an estimate of the number of transactions by county. The figures for 2005-2008 show a set of counties – including Laois and a mid-west corridor – where almost 30% of properties were traded in that period. Sure enough, these figures correlate very highly with the percentage of properties currently for sale in each county. Read more
The IMF report and Ireland’s competitiveness
A quick overview of Sections 1 and 3 of the IMF report on Ireland, which look at economic competitiveness, prices and wages, and taxes and public expenditure. Read more
Has the news from emerging markets changed? A word cloud Rorschach
A year ago, I dabbled with word clouds to see what headlines about emerging markets might reveal. Doing the same exercise for every quarter since 2006 shows some interesting trends, particularly in 2007 and 2008, where the importance of topics such as risk, growth and crisis changes over time. Early evidence from 2009 suggests – optimistically? – that the overall news from emerging markets now is quite similar to 2006! Read more
Can Ireland afford to increase its corporate tax rate?
Much is made of the importance of Ireland’s 12.5% headline corporate tax rate. Ireland’s effective tax rate on business is actually 15.5%, though. Increasing that to 17% still leaves Ireland as the third lowest in the OECD. Given the state of Ireland’s finances, such a move should be strongly considered. Read more
Yields on residential property point to scale of the challenge
Yields are a vital indicator of the health of a property market. Dublin yields on residential property have fallen steadily from 7% in the late 1990s to about 3.5% in 2008. Realistically, they will need to settle at some level closer to 5.25%. With rents looking like falling 33% from peak values, this suggests a fall in house prices from peak values of 60%. Read more
Academic etiquette, e-communism, onshoring and home run distributions
Links for June 18, 2009, including two attacks on economists and they way they work, one on communism, a discussion of onshoring and a correlation of the day! Read more
Future Focus, recession, Scotland and Cristiano Ronaldo
The slides and a video interview based on my presentation at the Future Focus event, chaired by James Bellini, in Edinburgh on June 11. Read more
A property tax in Ireland? Yes, we can!
With talk of an imminent property tax, people are trying to make the case that ‘Ireland is different’ – it’s possible elsewhere but not here. This post outlines some of the most common difficulties people raise, and how to overcome them. Read more