A year ago, I dabbled with word clouds to see what headlines about emerging markets might reveal. Doing the same exercise for every quarter since 2006 shows some interesting trends, particularly in 2007 and 2008, where the importance of topics such as risk, growth and crisis changes over time. Early evidence from 2009 suggests – optimistically? – that the overall news from emerging markets now is quite similar to 2006! Read more
Much is made of the importance of Ireland’s 12.5% headline corporate tax rate. Ireland’s effective tax rate on business is actually 15.5%, though. Increasing that to 17% still leaves Ireland as the third lowest in the OECD. Given the state of Ireland’s finances, such a move should be strongly considered. Read more
Yields are a vital indicator of the health of a property market. Dublin yields on residential property have fallen steadily from 7% in the late 1990s to about 3.5% in 2008. Realistically, they will need to settle at some level closer to 5.25%. With rents looking like falling 33% from peak values, this suggests a fall in house prices from peak values of 60%. Read more
With talk of an imminent property tax, people are trying to make the case that ‘Ireland is different’ – it’s possible elsewhere but not here. This post outlines some of the most common difficulties people raise, and how to overcome them. Read more
With CPI figures showing inflation at -5%, the real return on saving has climbed to a 16-year high. A property-specific real rate of interest can be calculated from the mid-1970s on. It shows that over the whole course of the Celtic Tiger period, real property interest rates were negative. The real cost of borrowing for property now, however, is 15% – higher than at any point for which we have the figures. Read more
Following last weekend’s European elections, commentators have highlighted a general move to the right and the usual protest vote. An examination of country-level results reveals that the move to the right may be driven more by punishment of governing parties for economic failures than any idealogical shift. Read more
S&P has downgraded Ireland’s debt rating – again – while latest Government figures show that Ireland faces a €12bn hole in its tax revenues this year, compared to 2007. This post outlines where the hole has come from and how it can be tackled. This will require an open debate, though, which will involve sacred cows such as Ireland’s corporate tax rate and a property tax. Read more
Figures from this blog on the rent-or-buy decision featured in today’s Irish Independent and have started some discussion on the most important factors for current prospective first-time buyers. This post includes a poll asking for your input on the topic, which will inform future posts on the topic. Read more
Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households. Read more
A quick look at prices across the different sectors in Ireland reveals a far more interesting pattern than the typical assumption of slowly rising prices would suggest. Clothing and communications prices are at levels similar to those in the 1980s, while ‘deflationary episodes’ are becoming more common in Ireland every decade. Read more