Simple economic models often beat complicated ones. Figures from the last 25 years show a very strong relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and the change in house prices. This gives hope for those anticipating house prices to level off in late 2010 or 2011 – assuming oversupply has been priced in by then.
The volume of transactions may be a good indicator of how overheated a property market is. Figures on completions, housing stock and mortgage approvals allow an estimate of the number of transactions by county. The figures for 2005-2008 show a set of counties – including Laois and a mid-west corridor – where almost 30% of properties were traded in that period. Sure enough, these figures correlate very highly with the percentage of properties currently for sale in each county.
With CPI figures showing inflation at -5%, the real return on saving has climbed to a 16-year high. A property-specific real rate of interest can be calculated from the mid-1970s on. It shows that over the whole course of the Celtic Tiger period, real property interest rates were negative. The real cost of borrowing for property now, however, is 15% – higher than at any point for which we have the figures.
Long-run real interest rates for Irish property, 1976-2009
Figures from this blog on the rent-or-buy decision featured in today’s Irish Independent and have started some discussion on the most important factors for current prospective first-time buyers. This post includes a poll asking for your input on the topic, which will inform future posts on the topic.
Is it the right time to rent or buy? Vote now
Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households.
Irish households hit by both unemployment and negative equity
This post uses Census and CSO data to estimate how many mortgage-holders in each county are faced with ‘unexpected unemployment’. Nationwide, almost 7% of mortgage holders are dealing with unemployment, a figure that could rise to 10% if the Live Register hits 500,000. Louth in particular and Leinster more generally are the worst affected areas.
Unemployment among mortgage-holders in Ireland by county
In this post, I take a look at the maths behind buying or renting. Amazingly, even in heady market of 2006, it was cheaper to buy than rent. With rates back down at very low rates, and generous mortgage interest relief, it is once again cheaper to buy than rent – and looks set to stay that way, unless there are significant changes to the tax system.
Annual savings for owning rather than renting, 2006-2009
Ireland’s property market is currently in rewind. Homes now are at March 2005 values – or July 2004, if asking prices are 10% above closing prices. Figures from daft.ie, the Census and the Dept of the Environment allow an estimate of both the number of homes now worth less than when they were bought – about 725,000, or 40% of homes – and how many of those are in negative equity -about 340,000, or 20% of homes.
The US leads the way for many types of statistics – and in particular for their timeliness. The housing market is no different, with a plethora of measures such as prices and volume of transactions out every month. In Ireland, though, we have to labour under a dearth of timely statistics on a range of [...]
This week’s daft.ie report revealed some intriguing findings in relation to the current state and trajectory of Ireland’s property market. As was discussed yesterday, for example, while east peaked earlier than west, north has fallen further than south since the peak. One of the conclusions of both these findings is that Dublin and its commuter [...]
