Correcting for technical errors in how inflation is measured sounds like a topic only for the pure theorists. This post, however, presents estimates of the cost to Irish taxpayers of the Government’s use of an inadequate measure of changes in the cost of living. If the Government had adjusted CPI downwards each year by 1.1%, as per leading estimates, it could have saved in the order of €13bn this decade. Read more
Recently, there have been some suggestions about NAMA buying up and renting out thousands of properties from its portfolio. This post goes through those suggestions and explores why it is a bad idea for the taxpayer, in that it amounts to doubling up on the NAMA gamble with developers as well as with the banks. Read more
With the Budget looming, a range of opinions are being aired about the relative importance of tax increases versus spending cuts. This post attempts to put Ireland’s public expenditure in perspective, by comparing the size of our Government, relative to the economy, with that of our European neighbours. It finds that Ireland’s government will, in all likelihood, be the largest in Europe in 2009. Read more
With the NAMA draft business plan released earlier this week, this post reviews a key topic that remains unaddressed: the low yields on residential property. It finds that yields are clearly lower – far lower – than the 6% assumed both at the start of the NAMA process and now, in its business plan. Read more
This post asks whether Ireland is in a recession or a depression, using the metric of jobs lost. It compares losses in Ireland with those in the US now and in the US during the Great Depression, and finds that – with almost one sixth of its private sector gone – Ireland is in indeed a jobs depression. Come the new year, it will be time for our jobs crisis to take centre stage as its cost to society is easily as large as NAMA or the public finances. Read more
This post reviews some measures of the health of the various property markets around Ireland, using transactions-based metrics not price-based ones. It finds that Dublin has seen an improvement in market conditions in the last six months, although it’s less clear whether other regions have reached the turning point yet. Read more
This post extends a February comparison of private sector job losses in recent US recessions to include the latest data, finding that the last six months have seen no significant recovery in employment numbers. It then compares the current recession to the Great Depression. Read more
This post goes through some of the findings from the latest Daft.ie Report, out this morning, which reviews trends up to the end of September. Optimists can point to falling stock for sale and quicker sale times in Dublin. Clear regional differences are now emerging in the house price adjustments, while sellers many counties also seem to engaging in a six month wait-and-see strategy. Read more
Global rankings of competitiveness are widely used, not so much by economists as by policymakers and those trying to attract foreign investment. This post compares and contrasts the WEF and World Bank measures of business competitiveness. The World Bank’s Doing Business rankings lend themselves very readily to policymakers taking action and differ for many countries quite substantially from the WEF rankings. Read more