Ronan,thankyou for this.
I have a problem with the veracity of some of the data from daft.ie.
If for example you look at co.wexford and draw up a list of all houses for sale on daft , it throws up 4447 choices.
However,if you interpret the Census data there should be about 40000 house units in the county and a recent Goodbody’s report found that some 8 % or 3200 houses are available, taking both new and second hand into account.(There is a view that equilibrium lies at 5% . Dublin has fallen below this so prices are due to rise)
I was trying to find where the difference lay and I returned to the Daft.ie listings and looked at how long they were on the market(Clicking twice on the date entered button wiil show you how long the properties have been listed.) It starts with the ones that have been listed for over 1500 days!
This shows me that the Daft data is skewed to begin with,those properties aren’t actively for sale. Then one has to consider they are analysing prices being quoted rather than prices achieved.
Marian Finnegan,Economist in Sherry FitzGerald prepares a review of a basket of valuations that we all contribute to from the offices all across the country(I am in Wexford town)and I believe this source gives a truer real time picture of where we are today.We have for example documented a fall in values from peak of 44%-dramatically more than Daft’s data would suggest.
anyhow I look forward to following your views.Thankyou Adrian Haythornthwaite
Adrian,
Thanks for your comments. I guess it’s to be expected that, with you contributing to one dataset (SherryFitz’s) and me analysing another, we may differ on this.
It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that properties only enter the daft house price index when they’re first posted. It’s not a simple average of all properties on the site at any one time. It’s an econometric method called hedonic price regressions (also used by the ESRI and most national house price indices), and the entries for a particular month are only newly listed properties or those that change their price during the month. Either way, the series captures a register of sellers’ expectations at any one time.
The huge advantage such a series has is that it is based on the separate deliberations and judgements of thousands of people with their estate agents every month. I would suggest that, when surveyed, estate agents may be more naturally drawn to think of the larger falls, which make more a psychological impression than smaller but equally prevalent falls (hence the even smaller fall from the peak in the PTSB index).
Thanks for the comment and the opportunity to explain what is and isn’t in the daft.ie index.
A Haythornthwaite ,
Ronan,thankyou for this.
I have a problem with the veracity of some of the data from daft.ie.
If for example you look at co.wexford and draw up a list of all houses for sale on daft , it throws up 4447 choices.
However,if you interpret the Census data there should be about 40000 house units in the county and a recent Goodbody’s report found that some 8 % or 3200 houses are available, taking both new and second hand into account.(There is a view that equilibrium lies at 5% . Dublin has fallen below this so prices are due to rise)
I was trying to find where the difference lay and I returned to the Daft.ie listings and looked at how long they were on the market(Clicking twice on the date entered button wiil show you how long the properties have been listed.) It starts with the ones that have been listed for over 1500 days!
This shows me that the Daft data is skewed to begin with,those properties aren’t actively for sale. Then one has to consider they are analysing prices being quoted rather than prices achieved.
Marian Finnegan,Economist in Sherry FitzGerald prepares a review of a basket of valuations that we all contribute to from the offices all across the country(I am in Wexford town)and I believe this source gives a truer real time picture of where we are today.We have for example documented a fall in values from peak of 44%-dramatically more than Daft’s data would suggest.
anyhow I look forward to following your views.Thankyou Adrian Haythornthwaite
Ronan Lyons ,
Adrian,
Thanks for your comments. I guess it’s to be expected that, with you contributing to one dataset (SherryFitz’s) and me analysing another, we may differ on this.
It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that properties only enter the daft house price index when they’re first posted. It’s not a simple average of all properties on the site at any one time. It’s an econometric method called hedonic price regressions (also used by the ESRI and most national house price indices), and the entries for a particular month are only newly listed properties or those that change their price during the month. Either way, the series captures a register of sellers’ expectations at any one time.
The huge advantage such a series has is that it is based on the separate deliberations and judgements of thousands of people with their estate agents every month. I would suggest that, when surveyed, estate agents may be more naturally drawn to think of the larger falls, which make more a psychological impression than smaller but equally prevalent falls (hence the even smaller fall from the peak in the PTSB index).
Thanks for the comment and the opportunity to explain what is and isn’t in the daft.ie index.
Ronan.