The banks and the government finances dominated public debate in 2009. In 2010, unemployment must take centre stage. This post presents estimates of young male unemployment around the country. In total about 55% of jobs for young men have disappeared in the last three years. In some parts of the country, up to two-thirds of young men are now signing on. Read more
Of the various economic problems that face Ireland, unemployment has been the one to show least signs of turning the corner. This post reviews the latest Live Register data, and finds some crumbs of comfort in the marked slowdown in new job losses recently. It also analyses the gender and age breakdown of the Live Register in 2009, finding men under-25 have had it toughest, before offering some thoughts on growth sectors for the future. Read more
As the decade draws to a close, this post looks back at the toughest year for Ireland’s economy since independence. It examines a dozen headline economic indicators, across the labour market, national income and prices. 2009 is compared (and constrasted) with the 2000-2007 boom period, before predictions for 2010 are made, based on current evidence. The most startling figure is how our average income per head compares with the EU15, going from 13% richer in 2007 to 8% poorer next year. Read more
This post outlines a scenario for Ireland’s government finances out to 2015. Even with aggressive productivity targets for areas of current expenditure, the deficit is likely to be above 4% of GDP by 2015, while the national debt will again be larger than national income and take up one-fifth of all tax revenues. Grounds for optimism – and pessimism – and alternative scenarios are also explored. Read more
This post scores Budget 2010 against three criteria: closing the budget deficit, preserving public services and managing expectations. While scoring very well on the first two, principally because the nettle of public sector pay was grasped, expectations about taxes and future Budgets were not properly managed, which may cause trouble down the line. Read more
This post outlines some key considerations in Ireland’s Budget 2010, including the scale of the challenge the government faces, the imperative to cut spending, the growing role of national debt, capital expenditure and over-reliance on income taxes. It also makes some recommendations for measures in relation to tax credits, property tax and VAT. Read more
On a day of national strikes, this post reviews the evidence on cuts in pay and presents three arguments against the trade union line that their pay must not be cut: only public sector is an Exchequer issue, we do not know what is happening in most of the private sector, and public sectors should adjust different to recessions anyway. If private sector scale savings had been achieved, the Exchequer would be €1.5bn better off this year. Read more
The Mayor of Limerick’s recent comments about deporting non-Irish unemployed have generated a lot of discussion. This post examines the numbers behind the claims and finds that, far from being a drain, those of working age from new EU member states are actually more than paying their way here! Read more
Correcting for technical errors in how inflation is measured sounds like a topic only for the pure theorists. This post, however, presents estimates of the cost to Irish taxpayers of the Government’s use of an inadequate measure of changes in the cost of living. If the Government had adjusted CPI downwards each year by 1.1%, as per leading estimates, it could have saved in the order of €13bn this decade. Read more
Recently, there have been some suggestions about NAMA buying up and renting out thousands of properties from its portfolio. This post goes through those suggestions and explores why it is a bad idea for the taxpayer, in that it amounts to doubling up on the NAMA gamble with developers as well as with the banks. Read more