Ronan Lyons | Personal Website
Ronan Lyons | Personal Website

The global recession is just a coincidence for Ireland

  • John Kennedy ,

    I agree with most of your observations here. The exporters are punching above their weight. I would argue that if we hadn’t had such an over-exposure to property and the subsequent fall-out in the construction sector, this country would still be doing well. The conundrum as I see it is we were able to stimulate the property bubble but right now when we need to stimulate growth to replace construction, they have nothing to offer

    • karl deeter ,

      Good post, do you have figures for Germany as opposed to the rest of the EU in one bar?

      Does the decrease in investment include (for instance – property investment?) Germany didn’t have a housing bubble the way we did so what I find confounding is that the likes of Germany are having a steep GDP fall as well, they are a strong exporter that traditionally had big surpluses and unlike us they didn’t blow them all, it seems to me they got side-swiped by the more reckless nations driving down the economic road alongside them. any thoughts?

      • Ronan Lyons ,

        Hi Karl,
        Germany’s fall in investment is 10%, but that’s driven by non-residential investment (down 15%) rather than by government or residential investment.
        http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/49/20209188.pdf
        All the German exporters are nervous and hence are not implementing their plans for expansion. So in a way, yes, they got hit by global factors while they themselves were being much more cautious! Spare a thought for the Japanese too – just coming out of their 15 years of hardly any growth and then their one rock of stability – exports – collapses.

        • Stephen ,

          The Irish Misery Index is holding up pretty well though considering how badly the country is doing.
          This property “thing” will unfortunitely continue to drag down this country like none other in the EU for the next few years, sadly.

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                • Cathal McCann ,

                  Nice post Ronan, good to hear someone telling the economic truth.

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