I understand house prices now stand at 5 times earnings. In my view they will fall to 3 times before rebounding.(Historically 3-3.5 times earnings was the median price of houses across the English speaking world) And of course earnings may have further to fall. What do you think Ronan.
Liam Kidney
,
I think the asking price is a joke anyway and was one of the things that fueled the boom. Till the Actual selling price is published we are at nothing. When was the register of sale prices suppose to happen….heard rumours for years…..
do you have the data to see if houses which were on the sales market subsequently hit the rental market and vice versa?
I just question whether it’s safe to make the assumption that all those houses that disappear from listings, particularly in Dublin and Cork, actually sold. Anecdotally I know of a few houses which, for reason of not getting an acceptable sales price started swapping between the letting and sales market.
@Liam, I can assure you that if you are selling your home, your asking price is not a joke! I do agree though about the importance of closing prices. The CSO are at a well advanced stage in terms of publishing an index of house prices, but I think that will be highly aggregated. The Department of Justice and the PRA have been tasked with the public-facing database/map of closing prices. I haven’t heard how that is progressing but it was supposed to happen this year.
@Edmund, the danger with historical comparisons is that they throw out useful financial innovations over time as well as harmful ones, as well as ignoring changes in household earning patterns (e.g. in Ireland 1.6 incomes now, versus 1.3 a generation ago). I think the yield (house price to rent ratio) is a better metric as you can look at the components such as borrowing costs, rents, risk, etc. The general consensus on the yield is that it too suggests house prices are somewhat overvalued still.
@Treasa, that’s a point well made. We do know when they come off whether they are coming off having been marked sale agreed or not and the bulk (about three quarters) of properties that come off do so having been sale agreed before they come off. I think it’s relatively safe to say that those have sold. Of the remainder, it is unclear what the division is between properties that are withdrawn completely, switched to rentals or did actually sell but the agent never got around to marking the ad as agreed. I will put an address matching exercise between “off-coming sale ads” and “on-coming rental ads” on to the to-do list and see what we can do in-house on that.
It might be worth seeing if they subsequently appear for sale a second time after going sale agreed too – this might give an indication of the rate of fallen through sale agreeds. I’m not sure if that’s so much a problem now but there were some suggestions that it could be a serious issue in the last year if financing fell through. Unless of course you’ve catered for that?
ellie
,
Hi Ronan. Just wondering if there is any sort of difference appearing between the different properties. What i mean is if there is any evidence of any particular type of property that is holding its value better eg. distance from the city centre, three bed semi vs appartment. Is there any way of dissecting the total fall in Dublin? It just seems very general.
john
,
Let’s not forget, widespread European surveys showed that Irish property was 30% OVER priced to begin with so in reality we’re talking 10-15 % of what should have been the norm. I’ve no sympathy for profiteers.
Edmund Burke ,
I understand house prices now stand at 5 times earnings. In my view they will fall to 3 times before rebounding.(Historically 3-3.5 times earnings was the median price of houses across the English speaking world) And of course earnings may have further to fall. What do you think Ronan.
Liam Kidney ,
I think the asking price is a joke anyway and was one of the things that fueled the boom. Till the Actual selling price is published we are at nothing. When was the register of sale prices suppose to happen….heard rumours for years…..
Treasa ,
Ronan,
do you have the data to see if houses which were on the sales market subsequently hit the rental market and vice versa?
I just question whether it’s safe to make the assumption that all those houses that disappear from listings, particularly in Dublin and Cork, actually sold. Anecdotally I know of a few houses which, for reason of not getting an acceptable sales price started swapping between the letting and sales market.
Ronan Lyons ,
@Liam, I can assure you that if you are selling your home, your asking price is not a joke! I do agree though about the importance of closing prices. The CSO are at a well advanced stage in terms of publishing an index of house prices, but I think that will be highly aggregated. The Department of Justice and the PRA have been tasked with the public-facing database/map of closing prices. I haven’t heard how that is progressing but it was supposed to happen this year.
@Edmund, the danger with historical comparisons is that they throw out useful financial innovations over time as well as harmful ones, as well as ignoring changes in household earning patterns (e.g. in Ireland 1.6 incomes now, versus 1.3 a generation ago). I think the yield (house price to rent ratio) is a better metric as you can look at the components such as borrowing costs, rents, risk, etc. The general consensus on the yield is that it too suggests house prices are somewhat overvalued still.
@Treasa, that’s a point well made. We do know when they come off whether they are coming off having been marked sale agreed or not and the bulk (about three quarters) of properties that come off do so having been sale agreed before they come off. I think it’s relatively safe to say that those have sold. Of the remainder, it is unclear what the division is between properties that are withdrawn completely, switched to rentals or did actually sell but the agent never got around to marking the ad as agreed. I will put an address matching exercise between “off-coming sale ads” and “on-coming rental ads” on to the to-do list and see what we can do in-house on that.
Thanks for the comments,
Ronan.
Treasa ,
It might be worth seeing if they subsequently appear for sale a second time after going sale agreed too – this might give an indication of the rate of fallen through sale agreeds. I’m not sure if that’s so much a problem now but there were some suggestions that it could be a serious issue in the last year if financing fell through. Unless of course you’ve catered for that?
ellie ,
Hi Ronan. Just wondering if there is any sort of difference appearing between the different properties. What i mean is if there is any evidence of any particular type of property that is holding its value better eg. distance from the city centre, three bed semi vs appartment. Is there any way of dissecting the total fall in Dublin? It just seems very general.
john ,
Let’s not forget, widespread European surveys showed that Irish property was 30% OVER priced to begin with so in reality we’re talking 10-15 % of what should have been the norm. I’ve no sympathy for profiteers.