Last Friday saw a much publicised “firesale” auction of distressed properties in Dublin. The fact that the prices achieved are known presents an information-starved public with some very valuable information on the current price level in the property market. This post uses a property-by-property analysis of the auction to estimate the fall in prices from the peak and the current gap between asking prices and prices achieved. It also looks at the important question of the relationship between the rent and the house price and shows how this can be used by prospective buyers to inform their decisions.
17 Apr 11
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Today sees the launch of the latest Daft.ie House Price Report, which finds that asking prices fell again in the first three months of 2011, but by one of the smallest percentages since 2008. This post outlines some key findings of the report and then explores a measure of the speed with which properties sell across Dublin, the rest of the Republic and also Northern Ireland.
05 Apr 11
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The cost of accommodation is one of the most important measures of competitiveness for a city or region, as it determines local wages and prices levels. This post compares the cost of buying and renting property in four Irish cities with those of other eurozone cities. It finds, perhaps surprisingly, that Irish cities are very competitive – and getting more so.
16 Mar 11
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The Daft.ie Report reviewing the rental market in 2010 was released this week. This post outlines its major findings – including that rents are now at 1998 levels but are rising in the cities. It looks in detail at oversupply on the rental market, and how it has disappeared in some regions, in particular Dublin. It also finds that there is no systematic difference between trends in the 1-2 bed segment and in the 3-4 bed segment.
08 Feb 11
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This post reviews the latest Daft Report, which outlines trends in house prices around Ireland over the course of 2010. In particular, it discusses the end of a single national property market and how the focus should now turn to the different regional markets around Ireland. Some of these, particularly in the cities, look quite close to the adjustment “finishing line”, while others may perhaps be only half way through their adjustment.
05 Jan 11
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This post attempts to put some shape on an answer to the question: Just what exactly is the scale of Ireland’s mortgage arrears “time bomb”? In particular, it takes issue with Morgan Kelly’s article suggesting that for bank balance sheets, mortgage arrears will dwarf NAMA write-downs. It does this by looking at some basic arithmetic. Whatever about the costs of repossessions for society, for the banks, the scale of the problem is much more likely to be closer to €1bn than the €100bn required to dwarf NAMA-related bank losses.
14 Dec 10
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This post reviews some very interesting findings from the real economy, at a time of great uncertainty about the government finances. In Ireland’s major cities, rents have stabilised, indicating a new floor may have been reached in income and jobs. This is not specific to any particular size of property. Instead, the big gap is between cities, which if anything may look understocked at the moment, and non-city areas, which are still significantly overstocked.
23 Nov 10
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Last week, the Department of the Environment published the findings of their survey on ghost estates. This post outlines what the study was – and wasn’t measuring – and why the focus was on ghost estates, not oversupply of property. It then highlights some important findings from the survey, including the scale of the problem in the Upper Shannon region and to a lesser extent in the Midlands.
26 Oct 10
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The latest Daft House Price Report, for Q3 2010, is out and this post reviews its main findings, including signs of easing price falls in Dublin and the likelihood of sellers finding a buyer. It also updates previous estimates of the number of households in negative equity, now over 200,000. The main worry has to be the number in severe negative equity of €50,000 or more, estimated at 100,000.
05 Oct 10
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This post revisits the claim made, a year ago, that NAMA only requires a recovery in property values of 10% in 10 years. The 15% fall in home values since has already pushed that out and a further 10% fall in 2011, as is likely, means that NAMA will require a new boom – 4% a year, every year till 2020 – to break even.
21 Sep 10
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