The latest Daft House Price Report, for Q3 2010, is out and this post reviews its main findings, including signs of easing price falls in Dublin and the likelihood of sellers finding a buyer. It also updates previous estimates of the number of households in negative equity, now over 200,000. The main worry has to be the number in severe negative equity of €50,000 or more, estimated at 100,000. Read more
Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households. Read more
Ireland’s property market is currently in rewind. Homes now are at March 2005 values – or July 2004, if asking prices are 10% above closing prices. Figures from daft.ie, the Census and the Dept of the Environment allow an estimate of both the number of homes now worth less than when they were bought – about 725,000, or 40% of homes – and how many of those are in negative equity -about 340,000, or 20% of homes. Read more
My recent post on negative equity led to some discussions, particularly on irisheconomy.ie, about the financial (i.e. NAMA) and labour market (i.e. dole) implications of negative equity. Here, I use Live Register figures to work out which counties have been affected most by unemployment since the start of the recession. A group of counties from Laois up to Cavan appear worst affected, although all counties have seen unemployment at least double. Read more
The figures from the latest Daft.ie Rental Report earlier this week confirm the growing divide between the fortunes of the country’s sale and rental markets. In the sale market, new construction is starting to bear fruit. The additional supply, together with Central Bank rules that link sale prices to the real economy, is leading to […] Read more
My academic research has three main areas of focus. A principal area of research focus is housing markets over the long run. While housing has for generations been both one of the main services we spend our incomes on, and the main asset in the typical household’s portfolio, we know very little about the path […] Read more
The end of one quarter and the start of another sees the usual slew of economic reports and the start of Q4 is no exception. Today sees the launch of the Q3 Daft.ie Report. In line with other reports in the last week or so, and indeed with the last few Daft.ie Reports, there is evidence […] Read more
As with every New Year’s period, the end of 2012 and start of 2013 has brought a significant amount of taking stock, from the global economic outlook down to the prospects for the Irish property market. The “2012 in Review” Daft.ie Report has been released and marks an expansion of the range of information covered […] Read more
Ireland’s struggle to introduce a property tax continues, as does the public’s fixation with it. A minor bullet point in this update to the IMF-EU “troika”, confirming what was already decided – that Ireland is going to bring in a value-based property tax – is (along with that other staple of Irish debate, abortion) leading […] Read more
This year, I’m teaching first year undergraduates at Trinity. I’ve a gang of about 400 and they’re mostly students not interested in studying Economics after this course. My job is to try and make them economically literate as they head off into the world. Part of the course is about macroeconomics in their everyday life: […] Read more