Brittle: chapter-by-chapter notes

Housing prices in Ireland are 'effectively back to their pre-crash peaks' two decades on

SourceCSO Residential Property Price Index (HPM09; annual series HPA13) vs 2007 peak; Keely and Lyons long-run index

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)CSO HPM09CSO HPA13

Number of homes available to rent on the open market in many cities is 'regularly below 100'; in towns like Newtownforbes and Mullingar can be counted on one hand

SourceDaft.ie Rental Report stock-on-the-market series (Lyons)

Daft.ie report series

CHART A: average annual real growth in sale prices and rents by period

SourceKeely and Lyons long-run price/rent series; CSO Consumer Price Index (CPA01 from 1975, spliced to the historical CPI series before that, as used in the paper) for deflation; Daft.ie

Daft.ie report seriesRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)CSO CPA01

1995-2005: real prices rose ~15%/yr, rents ~3%/yr - prices rose about five times faster than rents

SourceAs Chart A

Rents fell back between 2001 and 2004 as construction surged

SourceDaft.ie rent index / Keely and Lyons rent series

Daft.ie report seriesRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

2015-2025: real prices grew almost 5%/yr, rents 4%/yr

SourceAs Chart A

In the 2020s the number of new homes added just about matches the lowest level of completions per household in the second half of the 20th century

SourceCSO New Dwelling Completions (NDQ) + DoHLGH historical completions; household counts

CSO data

In some European countries the average household size is now below two persons

SourceEurostat ilc_lvph01 (average household size)

Eurostat ilc_lvph01

In poorer, more rural societies the typical household has more than four people

SourceUN DESA Population Division, Database on Household Size and Composition 2026 (UN DESA/POP/2026/DC/NO.15); Eurostat ilc_lvph01 'Average household size'; OECD Family Database SF1.1

Eurostat ilc_lvph01

Twice as many adults aged 20-34 living with their parents in 2022 as a decade earlier

SourceEurostat EU-SILC (ilc_lvps08)

Eurostat ilc_lvps08

The Housing Commission published a major report on fixing Irish housing in 2024

SourceReport of The Housing Commission (May 2024)

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

The Housing Commission ran a dedicated survey of over 1,000 adults aged 18-39 on how they live vs how they would choose to live

SourceHousing Commission commissioned survey (18-39 cohort)

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

The Housing Commission survey 'is now being copied by other European countries'

SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024), ISBN 978-1-903848-88-3, s.2.8.1 and Appendix 1B.2

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Only slightly more than half of respondents were happy with their living arrangements

SourceHousing Commission survey

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Just under half lived with parents or with friends/strangers, but only 15% would choose to; ratio of about six constrained to one chooser

SourceHousing Commission survey

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Just 4% of adults under 40 would choose to live with their parents

SourceHousing Commission survey

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

The Housing Commission used four approaches (long-run household size trends, census data on unrelated adults sharing, headship rates vs England, EU surveys) and found a deficit of 210,000-250,000 homes in 2022

SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024), housing deficit chapter/annex

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

In 2011 Ireland had roughly 1.65m households and about the same number of occupied homes

SourceCSO Census 2011

CSO data

Population rose from about 4.5m in 2011 to roughly 5.5m by the mid-2020s

SourceCSO Census 2011 & 2022; CSO Population and Migration Estimates

CSO data

Those extra 1m people alone would have required around 350,000 additional homes

SourceAuthor calculation

Falling shadow household size 2011-2026 alone would have required roughly 250,000 additional homes

SourceAuthor calculation

Household requirement rose ~40% 2011-2026, from ~1.65m to ~2.3m

SourceAuthor calculation on Housing Commission method

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Housing stock grew only about 20%, from roughly 1.65m to just under 2m

SourceCSO Census housing stock; CSO NDQ completions

CSO data

CHART 1: estimated housing deficit 2011-2026

SourceAuthor calculation extending the Housing Commission method

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Deficit >110,000 by 2016; ~230,000 by 2022; just over 340,000 by 2026

SourceAs Chart 1

In 2026 Ireland had roughly two million homes, allowing for normal vacancy - so one home in six is missing

SourceAuthor calculation

Over the decade to 2026 the household requirement grew ~50,000/yr while Ireland added ~25,000 homes/yr

SourceAuthor calculation; CSO NDQ

CSO data

Ireland's housing is 'almost uniquely in Europe' concentrated in houses, not apartments; apartments a much smaller share than comparable countries

SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO01 (dwelling type)

Eurostat ilc_lvho01

In 2022 Dublin City Council's draft development plan sought to tighten limits on one-bedroom apartments, citing remote working and space needs

SourceDraft Dublin City Development Plan 2022-2028

The same draft plan moved to limit purpose-built (build-to-rent) rental homes to specific zones with new conditions

SourceDraft Dublin City Development Plan 2022-2028

In the Netherlands policymakers distinguish 'dakloos' (roofless) from a broader homelessness category

SourceCBS, 'Dakloos in Nederland' and '33 duizend mensen dakloos begin 2024' (May 2025); FEANTSA ETHOS and ETHOS Light (2017); Nationaal Actieplan Dakloosheid: Eerst een Thuis (30 Nov 2022); Renkema, Verwarwoordenboek, 'dakloze/thuisloze'

Across most of Europe the share of young adults living with parents changed little in the last decade; fell slightly in some countries

SourceEurostat EU-SILC (ilc_lvps08)

Eurostat ilc_lvps08

CHART 2: change in share of adults living with parents (pp), 2012-2022, Ireland vs euro area and peers

SourceEurostat EU-SILC

Eurostat database

Euro area: share of 25-29s living at home rose just 1pp; 30-34s smaller still

SourceAs Chart 2

Ireland: 20-24s rose from 70% to nearly 90%; 25-29s doubled from 34% to 68%; 30-34s +12pp; 20-34 group from two in five to three in five

SourceAs Chart 2

Germany and Sweden fell; Denmark and Finland barely moved; Spain and Italy rose only a handful of pp

SourceAs Chart 2

There are about 70,000 people in Ireland for each year of age between 20 and 40

SourceCSO population by single year of age (Census 2022 / PEA11)

CSO data

About 600 'forever' relationships start every week in Ireland (30,000 couples per cohort, allowing 15% never coupling)

SourceAuthor calculation

Irish property prices rose for thirteen consecutive years between 1958-1971 and again 1993-2006; the run from 2012 is set to become the longest on record

SourceKeely and Lyons long-run Irish housing price series (from 1945)

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Research with Richard Keely constructed a consistent price record back to 1945

SourceRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons (2022), 'Housing Prices, Yields and Credit Conditions in Dublin since 1945', Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3), pp. 404-439

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Over eight decades housing prices rose ~8%/yr while wider prices rose ~5%/yr

SourceKeely and Lyons; CSO CPI

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Four distinct price cycles between the mid-1940s and early 2010s (post-war rise, 1950s fall, early-1970s peak, early-1980s peak, 2007 peak)

SourceKeely and Lyons

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Long-run rent series built from newspaper archives back to the 1940s

SourceKeely and Lyons rent series

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Since the 1940s rents rose ~6.3%/yr vs 8.4%/yr for sale prices

SourceKeely and Lyons

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

By late 2004 rents in central Dublin were roughly 15% lower than three years earlier; Meath fell more

SourceDaft.ie Rental Report series

Daft.ie report series

Late 2025: Dublin city centre rents ~125% above post-crash low; Kerry almost 150%; Laois average market rent three times its 2011 level

SourceDaft.ie Rental Report

Daft.ie report series

Longest previous run of rising real rents before the 2010s was six years (1995-2001); five years 1959-1964 close behind; no nationwide fall in real rents since 2012

SourceKeely and Lyons rent series

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Rent Pressure Zones, capping annual rent increases, 'were introduced in 2017'

SourcePlanning and Development (Housing) and Residential Tenancies Act 2016

CHART 3: Dublin rental availability on the first day of each quarter 2006-2026 vs following quarter's rent change

SourceDaft.ie (named in text)

Daft.ie report series

Some quarters saw 8,000 homes available in Dublin, others fewer than 1,000; rent changes ranged +4% to -6%

SourceAs Chart 3

Availability at the start of a quarter explains about one-third of subsequent rent movements

SourceAuthor's own estimation on Daft.ie data

Daft.ie report series

The relationship holds across time, across Irish cities and regions, and for sales as well as rentals

SourceAuthor's own analysis

Dublin rental market is closest to balance at roughly 4,000 homes available; since 2021 typically ~1,300

SourceAuthor calculation from Chart 3

Balance requires around 1,000 Dublin rental listings per week; the 2020s have seen closer to 360

SourceAuthor calculation, Daft.ie listings

Daft.ie report series

Assuming a typical tenancy of three years (150 weeks), Dublin's rental deficit is about 75,000 homes

SourceAuthor calculation; tenancy length assumption

Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford: balance ~350 listings/week vs actual ~73 (about 20%), implying a combined deficit of ~30,000 rental homes

SourceAuthor calculation, Daft.ie

Daft.ie report series

Roughly 105,000 missing rental homes across the five cities - about one-third of the national deficit

SourceAuthor calculation

Rents in Offaly and Limerick city rose by a factor of three in a little over a decade

SourceDaft.ie Rental Report

Daft.ie report series

A software engineer on EUR65,000 in Cork is 'well above the national average'

SourceCSO Earnings and Labour Costs, EHA05 'Average Annual Earnings and Other Labour Costs'

CSO EHA05

Leitrim saw one of the biggest increases in housing stock of any county in the 2000s; Dublin the smallest

SourceCSO data on housing stock and completions by county, with the author's analysis

CSO data

Leitrim prices in 2020 were less than 10% above their level two decades earlier; Dublin prices were over 40% higher

SourceDaft.ie and ESRI-PTSB price data, with the author's analysis

Daft.ie report series

Between 2021 and 2025 the cost of building a home rose by over 40%, per the SCSI, who have tracked building costs since the late 1980s

SourceSociety of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) tender price / house rebuilding cost series

SCSI

The 'Building Homes' study, co-authored by the author, compared the cost of building the same apartment block across ten European cities in early 2020; Dublin was almost 15% above the ten-city average and second only to Zurich

SourceSCSI/TCD, Building Homes: Apartment Construction Costs in Europe with a Focus on Dublin (July 2024) - costs priced at Q1 2020

SCSI/TCD, Building Homes (2024)

CHART 4: index of prices, rents, construction costs and costs after tax reliefs, 2000 = 1

SourceSCSI build costs; Keely and Lyons / Daft.ie prices & rents; Revenue tax-relief assumptions

Daft.ie report seriesRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Work with Maximilian Guennewig-Moenert finds supply responds about twice as strongly to a fall in costs as to an equivalent rise in prices

SourceMaximilian Guennewig-Moenert and Ronan C. Lyons (2024), 'Housing prices, costs, and policy: The housing supply equation in Ireland since 1970', Real Estate Economics 52(4), pp. 1075-1102

Real Estate Economics 52(4), 2024

Rents about twice, prices about three times their 2000 level; costs after tax reliefs about four times

SourceAs Chart 4

Mid-2020s: delivering a two-bed apartment costs about EUR400,000 excluding land and developer margin

SourceIndustry sources (for-profit and non-profit builders); author compilation

Site cost adds at least EUR10,000 and in Dublin maybe over EUR50,000 per apartment

SourceAs above

Adding a 15% developer margin and 9% VAT gives EUR500,000 with no site cost, ~EUR570,000 with land

SourceAuthor calculation

Investors require ~5% annual return (standard in the 2020s); one-fifth of rent absorbed by management, maintenance and vacancy

SourceIndustry convention; author assumption

Two-bed break-even rent EUR2,700-EUR3,000/month; one-bed delivery cost EUR350,000-EUR400,000 with break-even rent EUR1,800-EUR2,000

SourceAuthor calculation

Newly built rental housing is only financially sustainable for households with take-home incomes of EUR90,000 and up - 'well into the top quarter of earners'

SourceAuthor calculation + CSO SILC income distribution

CSO data

EUR570,000 two-bed needs EUR3,000/month; at one-third of take-home pay that is EUR9,000/month net, ~EUR108,000/yr, i.e. a couple on EUR160,000 gross

SourceAuthor calculation

One-bed at EUR400,000 needs EUR2,000/month; EUR72,000 take-home from a single pre-tax salary of EUR120,000

SourceAuthor calculation

Household income-by-tenure distribution built by combining the census and the Survey on Income and Living Conditions

SourceCSO Census; CSO SILC Research Microdata File

CSO data

Work with Barra Roantree rebuilds the household distribution from individuals up, adding around 215,000 suppressed households

SourceWork in progress with Barra Roantree, expedited for the book

Of those living with parents, a little over a third would live alone and almost the same share with a partner; sharers split similarly

SourceHousing Commission survey

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Counting households on a middling income of ~EUR35,000, the true figure is more than a quarter higher than the official count

SourceWork in progress with Barra Roantree, expedited for the book

CHART 5: households by position relative to the EUR40,000 Ceiling and EUR90,000 Floor

SourceAuthor calculation from CSO SILC/Census

CSO data

Gross income needed to sustain the break-even rent on a new home is around EUR140,000/yr; fewer than one household in three clears it

SourceAuthor calculation

The state's help runs out at around EUR40,000 - the disposable income ceiling for social housing in the cities and commuter counties

SourceSocial housing income eligibility bands, as set out by Citizens Information

Citizens Information

About one-third of the country is stranded above the Ceiling and below the Floor - a gap of EUR50,000

SourceAuthor calculation

About 550,000 households either rent privately or never formed; only about one in seven clears the market floor

SourceAuthor calculation

Of ~455,000 non-owners earning EUR40,000 or less, only ~200,000 are in social housing; ~162,000 are suppressed households; nearly 100,000 rent privately with no help

SourceAuthor calculation

Construction costs rose sharply after Covid-19 due to global supply disruptions and inflation; energy and environmental standards tightened

SourceCSO Wholesale Price Index (building & construction materials); SCSI

CSO data

CHART 6: average change in population by decade, selected countries, 1820-2000 and 2000-2075 (projected)

SourceHistorical population data (e.g. Maddison Project) + Eurostat EUROPOP population projections

Eurostat database

Ireland was the only European country to lose population consistently across the 19th and 20th centuries, by an average 3.4% per decade, vs over 6% growth per decade elsewhere

SourceAs Chart 6

European population is projected to fall slightly each decade to the 2070s, while Ireland's is projected to grow almost 8% a decade

SourceEurostat EUROPOP projections

Eurostat database

County Dublin's share of the national population has barely changed since the early 1970s even as its share of economic activity grew

SourceCSO Census; 'Dublin as a share of the total 1841-2022.csv'

CSO data

The 2011 official survey of unfinished developments found 2,876 such developments across all 26 counties

SourceDoECLG National Housing Development Survey 2011

Male suicide rates rose by an estimated 57%

SourceCorcoran, P., Griffin, E., Arensman, E., Fitzgerald, A.P. and Perry, I.J. (2015), 'Impact of the economic recession and subsequent austerity on suicide and self-harm in Ireland: an interrupted time series analysis', International Journal of Epidemiology 44(3), pp. 969-977, doi:10.1093/ije/dyv058

Int. J. Epidemiology 44(3) — full text

CMAT made this the emotional centre of her song 'Euro-Country'

SourceCMAT, 'Euro-Country' (2025)

Between 2007 and 2012 sales prices fell by more than half; in some parts of the market by almost three-quarters

SourceCSO Residential Property Price Index; Daft.ie

Daft.ie report series

More than 90,000 homes completed at the 2006 peak; fewer than 4,600 by 2013 - a 95% fall

SourceDoEHLG/DoHLGH house completions (ESB connections); CSO NDQ

CSO data

Rents fell by roughly a quarter

SourceDaft.ie rent index

Daft.ie report series

180,000 homes in ~2,900 ghost estates - almost 10% of the national stock

SourceNational Housing Development Survey 2011

Roscommon had just 16,000 households in the 1996 census but 116 unfinished developments with over 4,000 homes

SourceCensus 1996; National Housing Development Survey 2011

CSO data

Almost half of ghost-estate homes were already occupied; a further 60,000 were plans only; of the remaining 36,000 roughly half empty, half half-built - so ~18,000 empty

SourceNational Housing Development Survey 2011

By 2015 officials stopped the ghost-estate survey; effectively none with empty homes remained

SourceDoECLG unfinished housing development surveys, final round

The 2010 Daft.ie rental report (reviewing 2009) found the first signs of shortage in Dublin

SourceDaft.ie Rental Report, 2009 in review (Lyons)

Daft.ie report series

Dublin rents bottomed within a year; Dublin prices started rising by early 2013; all parts of the country rising within eighteen months; Dublin prices +20% in 2014

SourceDaft.ie; CSO RPPI

Daft.ie report series

Fewer than 30,000 homes built in total across 2011-2015

SourceCSO NDQ / DoHLGH completions

CSO data

Ireland needed about 50,000 new homes a year in the 2010s

SourceAuthor calculation (Ch1)

Sweden: prices peaked in 1979 and fell almost one-third; within five years construction was back above 1979 levels

SourceOECD real house price index; Statistics Sweden new construction

Boston: prices fell 18% 1989-1992 but by 1993 approvals were back at pre-crash levels

SourceUS Census Bureau building permits; FHFA/Case-Shiller price index

CSO data

Across 25 major US cities activity peaked in 1986 and by 1991 had recovered to more than half the peak

SourceUS Census Bureau building permits by metro

CSO data

Britain: new homes in 2012 over one-third lower than 2007; Northern Ireland down over half; similarly the US

SourceMHCLG Live Table 209/217; NISRA new dwelling statistics; US Census

CSO data

Ireland fell by almost 95%; only Spain came close

SourceSpanish construction statistics (Ministerio de Transportes / INE)

CHART 7: homes built after selected housing-market crashes, 1970s-2010s (peak year = 100)

SourceCompiled series for Ireland, LA, Boston, Seattle, Sweden, NI, England, Scotland, Chicago, NYC

Chicago: four years after peak building down over 80%, but within a decade close to its late-1970s peak; Ireland a decade on was lower than four years in

SourceAs Chart 7

The author asked 'Where are all the cranes?' on RTE's Prime Time in 2014

SourceRTE Prime Time broadcast, 2014

A suburban Dublin two-bed apartment selling for ~EUR350,000 in 2007 and ~EUR160,000 by 2012

SourceDaft.ie / CSO RPPI Dublin apartments

Daft.ie report series

Build cost about EUR1,500 per square metre in 2006 and about EUR1,400 in the early 2010s

SourceSCSI building cost series

SCSI

Ireland built fewer homes in 2013 than eight decades earlier, in the middle of the Great Depression

SourceReports of the Department of Local Government and Public Health, 1930s

Ireland built fewer homes in 2016 than in 1956

SourceReport of the Department of Local Government 1955-56

In 1987 statisticians projected Ireland's 2021 population at 3.4 million; the actual figure was over five million

SourceCSO Population and Labour Force Projections (1988); CSO Census 2022

CSO data

By 1989 Ireland had phased out leaded petrol thanks to a European Community directive

SourceCouncil Directive 85/210/EEC on lead content of petrol; Irish implementing regulations

Dublin banned smoky coal in 1990

SourceAir Pollution Act 1987 (Marketing, Sale and Distribution of Fuels) Regulations 1990

Visible air pollution fell by almost three-quarters in a few short years

SourceLuke Clancy, Pat Goodman, Hamish Sinclair and Douglas W. Dockery (2002), 'Effect of air-pollution control on death rates in Dublin, Ireland: an intervention study', The Lancet 360(9341), pp. 1210-1214

The Lancet 360(9341)

In 1981 the government introduced a time-limited relief letting investors deduct construction costs from rental income, for new, modest, commercially let homes held 10+ years

SourceFinance Act 1981, section 23

In the late 1980s enhanced reliefs were introduced for designated urban areas beginning with the Custom House Docks, alongside the IFSC

SourceUrban Renewal Act 1986; Finance Act 1986

The new reliefs could be set against an investor's other income, not just rental income from the property

SourceFinance Acts (urban renewal reliefs)

By 1994 much of central Dublin including the quays and Temple Bar had been designated for Section 23 reliefs; parts of Cork, Limerick, Galway and other town centres followed

SourceUrban renewal designations, Dept of the Environment / Revenue

In 1998 Section 23 reliefs were extended rather than wound down and broadened across new categories in every county, including owner-occupied homes, living-over-the-shop, student accommodation, seaside resorts, islands, town centres, rural districts and park-and-ride

SourceUrban Renewal Act 1998; Finance Act 1998; Revenue scheme lists

More than 100 towns across 23 counties designated under the Town Renewal Scheme alone; Leitrim and Longford under the Rural Renewal Scheme; Roscommon blanketed by overlapping designations; Sligo qualified under all five residential schemes

SourceTown Renewal Act 2000 / Rural Renewal Scheme designations

SCSI has produced an estimate of the cost of building homes since the late 1980s

SourceSCSI

SCSI

Tony Smith, SCSI chief executive, told The Irish Times in June 1999: 'There has obviously been an increase in building costs, as yet I couldn't put figures on it.'

SourceThe Irish Times, June 1999

Cost of building a home in 1997 was a little under EUR1,400/sq m in today's money, broadly in line with the mid-1980s and mid-1970s

SourceSCSI series deflated by CSO CPI

CSO data

Real build costs jumped more than 40% between 1997 and 2000, to close to EUR1,950/sq m; still roughly EUR2,050 in 2020

SourceAs above

Roughly three-quarters of the real increase in Irish build costs 1995-2020 dates from the late-1990s surge

SourceAuthor calculation on SCSI series

SCSI

Author's own work on 50 years of Irish housing supply finds construction responds twice as strongly to costs as to prices

SourceMaximilian Guennewig-Moenert and Ronan C. Lyons (2024), 'Housing prices, costs, and policy: The housing supply equation in Ireland since 1970', Real Estate Economics 52(4), pp. 1075-1102

Real Estate Economics 52(4), 2024

For a higher-rate taxpayer, a EUR200,000 Section 23 home might effectively cost EUR80,000 after tax

SourceAuthor illustration using marginal rates of the period

CHART 8: average homes built per 1,000 underlying households by period

SourceCSO/DoHLGH completions; author's underlying-household series

CSO data

1970s-early 1980s ~30 per 1,000; decade to 1996 ~20; 1997-2008 ~40; 2009-2016 ~5; 2017-2025 ~11

SourceAs Chart 8

Tax reliefs were curtailed in 2008 just as credit tightened and prices collapsed

SourceFinance Act 2006 termination and transitional provisions for property reliefs

Stripping out inflation, the increase in build costs 2020-2025 was of similar magnitude to the late-1990s jump

SourceSCSI / CSO WPI

CSO data

By the mid-2020s Ireland ranked among the most expensive places in Europe, if not the world, to build; international comparisons place Dublin near the top of global construction league tables

SourceTurner & Townsend, International Construction Market Survey

Building a home in Newry costs dramatically less than in Dundalk, twelve kilometres away, consistently and substantially

SourceSCSI and Trinity College Dublin, with the European Council of Construction Economists, 'Building Homes: Apartment Construction Costs in Europe with a Focus on Dublin' (Dublin: SCSI/TCD, July 2024). Corroborated by Turner & Townsend, International Construction Market Survey 2019

SCSI/TCD, Building Homes (2024)

Between 1995 and 2007 more than 750,000 homes were completed

SourceDoEHLG house completions

In the twelve years to 2006 housing prices rose every single year, and by more than 10% in almost all

SourceKeely and Lyons price series

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Ireland qualified for Euro '88 and won Eurovision with Johnny Logan's 'Hold Me Now' (1987)

Late 1980s: unemployment above 15%; over 1% of the population emigrating each year; national debt doubled over the previous decade

SourceCSO Labour Force Survey / historical unemployment; CSO Population and Migration Estimates; Dept of Finance debt series

CSO data

Nearly 28,000 new homes built in 1980; just over 18,000 by 1987; fewer than 16,000 (15,654) in 1988 - the lowest in more than a decade

SourceDoE housing completions

Prices rose by a third between 1988 and 1989 and by another 19% the following year; real prices in 1990 nearly 50% higher than two years earlier

SourceKeely and Lyons

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Completions rose from 15,654 in 1988 to 19,539 in 1990; Kerry and Laois grew, Wexford barely, Tipperary fell

SourceDoE housing completions by county

The Irish Times, 27 November 1987: 'Building Societies to get banking functions'

SourceThe Irish Times, 27 November 1987

'The minister for finance, Padraig Flynn, was proposing reforms'correction

SourceThe Irish Times of 27 November 1987 names the sponsoring minister as 'THE MINISTER for the Environment, Mr Flynn'

In the early 1970s building societies issued two-thirds of new mortgages; the traditional banks issued not a single mortgage in 1971; a decade later societies were still two-thirds

SourceQuarterly Bulletin of Housing Statistics; Massey (1984)

Reforms that took effect in 1988 allowed building societies to borrow on financial markets

SourceBuilding Societies Act 1989

Michael Fingleton described the liberalization as 'everything the Building Societies require'

SourceJohn Stanley, 'Building societies to get banking functions', The Irish Times, Friday 27 November 1987, p.1 (No. 40,923, City edition). Related inside-page piece flagged on the front: 'New building society legislation seen as charter for survival', p.16.

The Irish Temperance Permanent Benefit Building Society is the ancestor of PTSB

SourcePermanent TSB, 'Our Banking Heritage'

Permanent TSB, Our Banking Heritage

Building societies were member-owned, one vote per member; directors personally liable for improper advances; second charges tightly limited; arrears and advances reporting mandated

SourceBuilding Societies Acts 1874 and 1894

Societies enjoyed preferential tax treatment on deposits, lower corporation tax and different liquidity rules than retail banks

SourcePatrick Massey (1984), 'The Role of Building Societies in the Irish Financial System', Irish Banking Review, March 1984

Bank of Scotland (Ireland) entered the Irish mortgage market in August 1999 and competed aggressively

SourcePatrick Honohan, The Irish Banking Crisis: Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy 2003-2008 - A Report to the Minister for Finance by the Governor of the Central Bank (31 May 2010)

Bank of Scotland announced the first 100% mortgage in the UK market in 2001; 100% mortgages available in Ireland by 2005; zero-deposit mortgages widespread by early 2006correction

Source'BoS offers 100% mortgage', The Independent, 9 October 1993; Iain Anderson, 'Does anyone really need a 100% mortgage?', The Independent, 15 April 1995; 'Safe Flight?', Mortgage Strategy, 28 October 2002; Laura Slattery, 'Property surge expected as bank offers 100% mortgages', The Irish Times, 14 July 2005; Laura Slattery, 'Ulster Bank 100% mortgage package causes surprise', The Irish Times, 30 May 2003; Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, Housing Statistics, 'Ranges of loan to value'; Patrick Honohan (2009), 'What Went Wrong in Ireland?', p.5

The Independent, 9 October 1993The Independent, 15 April 1995The Irish Times, 14 July 2005

In late 2002 the Central Bank wrote strongly worded letters to all twelve lenders urging adherence to industry-devised guidelinescorrection

SourceSiobhan Creaton, 'Central Bank warns lenders on relaxing mortgage rules', The Irish Times, 20 November 2002; Central Bank of Ireland, Annual Report 2002, pp. 10 and 72

The Irish Times, 20 November 2002Central Bank of Ireland, Annual Report 2002

In 1999 a first-time buyer needed a deposit of around 30%; by 2006 less than 5%, in some cases nothing

SourceRonan Lyons (2013), DPhil thesis, University of Oxford

Lyons (2013), DPhil thesis, University of Oxford

Loan-to-income multiples rose from 2.5x to four, five, six times, with seven-times lending 'not unheard of' at the peak

SourceHonohan Report (2010); Central Bank data

The Irish government guaranteed the entire banking system in September 2008 as global credit markets froze

SourceCredit Institutions (Financial Support) Act 2008

In 2006 alone roughly 90,000 new homes were completed, in a country with just over one million homes in the 1990s

SourceDoEHLG completions; Census 1996 housing stock

CSO data

Work with John Muellbauer examined the drivers of Irish housing prices from the 1970s to the early 2010s; supply pushed prices down while looser lending pushed them up

SourceRonan C. Lyons and John Muellbauer, 'Explaining the bubble: House prices, user-cost and credit conditions in Ireland, 1975-2012', Trinity College Dublin Department of Economics working paper; the analysis also forms Chapter 5 of Ronan C. Lyons (2013), The Economics of Ireland's Property Market Bubble, DPhil thesis, University of Oxford

Lyons (2013), DPhil thesis, University of Oxford

CHART 9: construction rate per household by year, Dublin and Upper Shannon region, 1970-2025

SourceDoE/CSO completions by county; author's household series

CSO data

Dublin added 37 homes per 1,000 households a year on average 2001-2005, almost exactly its mid-1970s rate; Upper Shannon rose from 19 per 1,000 in the early 1970s to almost four times that by the early 2000s, hitting almost 120 per 1,000 in 2006

SourceAs Chart 9

Credit expansion translated into suburban output in parts of 1930s Britain

SourceA.E. Holmans, Historical Statistics of Housing in Britain, CCHPR Report 45 (Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, University of Cambridge, November 2005), Tables B.6 p.47, L.9 p.392, E.2 p.142, S.36 p.272, I.18 p.286, J.3 p.304; Crafts, N. (2013), 'Escaping liquidity traps: Lessons from the UK's 1930s escape', VoxEU; Broadberry, S.N. (1987), 'Cheap Money and the Housing Boom in Interwar Britain', The Manchester School 55(4), pp. 378-391

Holmans, CCHPR Report 45Crafts, VoxEU (2013)The Manchester School 55(4)

Between roughly 1990 and 2015 Ireland operated without firm system-wide mortgage rules; prices rose nearly fourfold then fell by more than half; construction collapsed 95%; the banking system imploded

SourceKeely and Lyons; completions series

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

The Central Bank reintroduced strict mortgage-lending rules in 2015

SourceCentral Bank of Ireland macroprudential mortgage measures (2015)

On 17 June 1977 Fianna Fail won the largest majority in the history of the state

Source1977 general election results

Martin O'Donoghue, the Trinity economist who helped write the manifesto, was lined up as a future minister

Within five years Charlie Haughey went on national television to tell the country to tighten its belt

SourceHaughey's address to the nation, 9 January 1980

Domestic rates vanished from 1978 onward

SourceLocal Government (Financial Provisions) Act 1978

Between 1977 and 1980 both sale and rental prices of housing nearly doubled

SourceKeely and Lyons

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

Housing prices rose by roughly one-third more than prices in the wider economy between 1977 and 1980

SourceKeely and Lyons; CSO CPI

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

1978 and 1979 were the only years between 1965 and 1995, apart from 1989 and 1990, with double-digit growth in prices

SourceKeely and Lyons

Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

A rates bill of roughly GBP50/yr, capitalised over twenty years, was worth well over GBP1,000 in extra bidding power

SourceAuthor calculation

For over 35 years, until the early 2010s, Ireland had effectively no recurring annual tax on owner-occupied housing

SourceLocal Government (Financial Provisions) Act 1978; Finance (Local Property Tax) Act 2012

Griffith's Valuation was carried out between 1847 and 1864

SourceGeneral Valuation of Rateable Property in Ireland

Richard Griffith born 1784; trained as a military engineer; produced a landmark geological map of Ireland in 1838; elected FRS; created a baronet; lived into his nineties

SourceDictionary of Irish Biography, 'Griffith, Sir Richard John'

Dictionary of Irish Biography

Nineteenth-century Irish census records were largely destroyed in 1922, making Griffith's survey a census substitute

SourceNational Archives of Ireland

A three-bed home in Brookwood Lawn, Artane, listed in the early 1970s at GBP5,950 with 'RV GBP19.50'

SourceNewspaper property advertisement, early 1970s

Dublin Corporation's 1970 rate in the pound was GBP4.24, giving an annual bill of about GBP83, or about 1.4% of property value

SourceReturns of Local Taxation

Domestic rates continue in Northern Ireland to this day

SourceLand & Property Services NI

Officials from the European Commission and IMF asked why Ireland does not tax residential property

SourceEU/IMF Programme of Financial Support for Ireland (2010), Memorandum of Understanding

Central Bank of Ireland: Irish household total wealth almost EUR1,300bn in 2025, of which housing EUR874bn (over two-thirds) and pensions a further 20%

SourceCentral Bank of Ireland, Quarterly Financial Accounts / Household Wealth release

Henry George published Progress and Poverty in 1879; over three million copies bought in the first two decades; 'during the 1890s, only the Bible outsold Henry George in English'

SourceFrank Luther Mott, Golden Multitudes: The Story of Best Sellers in the United States (New York: Macmillan, 1947), pp. 167-168

George ran for Mayor of New York twice, outpolling a young Theodore Roosevelt on his first run and dying of exhaustion days before the 1897 election

SourceNew York mayoral elections 1886 and 1897

Lizzie Magie, an American feminist and engineer, invented The Landlord's Game, later known as Monopoly

SourceUS Patent 748,626 (1904), Lizzie J. Magie

Ireland taxed imputed rent until 1969, charging owner-occupiers on a notional rental value derived from Griffith's survey; abolished because valuations had decayed

SourceSchedule A income tax; Finance Act 1969

A government-commissioned report in 1977 estimated revenue lost by not taxing imputed rent at up to GBP40m in 1972, about one-fifth of all income tax revenue

SourceNational Economic and Social Council, Report on Housing Subsidies, NESC Report No. 23 (Dublin: Stationery Office). Drafted by John Blackwell and Andrew Somerville of the Council Secretariat; adopted by the Council July 1976, filed by NESC as 1977. Table 9, p.59; para. 110

NESC Report No. 23

CHART 10: taxes on property as a percentage of GDP, selected countries

SourceOECD Revenue Statistics (taxes on property, 4000 series)

Across the OECD annual property taxes typically raise 1% of national income

SourceOECD Revenue Statistics

Greece and Spain responded to the early-2010s crises by taxing housing wealth more; Ireland's 2013 property tax barely registers

SourceAs Chart 10

Property pays six times as much tax, relative to national income, in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA as in Ireland

SourceOECD Revenue Statistics

Ireland has a high VAT rate and a high top rate of income tax compared with many peers

SourceOECD Tax Database / Taxing Wages

Bungalow Bliss, 'written by architect John Fitzsimons', first appeared in 1971

SourceJack Fitzsimons, Bungalow Bliss (Kells Art Studios, 1971)

In 1971 a three-bed bungalow cost just under GBP3,000 to build; by 1981 roughly GBP22,000; the book expanded from twenty designs to one hundred by 1981

SourceBungalow Bliss, 1971 and 1981 editions

In 1971 a state grant of GBP325 was available (over 10% of the build cost), with a further grant for those earning under GBP1,250/yr; by 1981 the grant was GBP1,000 per new home

SourceHousing Acts / Department of Local Government annual reports

In 1970 a little over half of the 14,000 homes built were outside Dublin and the four other cities; three decades later three-quarters of 53,000 homes were rural; urban building more than doubled while rural building rose five-fold

SourceDoE completions by county/area

'No other high-income European country embedded scattered housing so deeply into its culture'

SourceEurostat ilc_lvho01; Gkartzios, M. and Shucksmith, M. (2015), 'Spatial anarchy versus spatial apartheid: rural housing ironies in Ireland and England', Town Planning Review 86(1), pp. 53-72, doi:10.3828/tpr.2015.4; Heaphy, L. and Scott, M. (2022), European Planning Studies 30(12), pp. 2412-2432; CSO Census 2016 Profile 1

Eurostat ilc_lvho01Town Planning Review 86(1)European Planning Studies 30(12)

In 1901 roughly 14% of the population lived in County Dublin; by 1966 that had doubled to 28%; it reached 29% in 1971 and was 28% in 2022

SourceCSO Census

CSO data

Ireland's cities account for about 85% of employment but only roughly 65% of homes - a 20pp gap

SourceCSO Census POWSCAR, with the author's analysis

CSO data

As late as 1996 more people moved into Dublin from the rest of Ireland than left; by the 2000s the pattern flipped; over 12,000 more left Dublin than arrived in 2002; still exporting in the 2010s

SourceCSO Census internal migration / county of birth tables

CSO data

Between 2002 and 2022 the Irish-born population of Carlow rose 20% while the number of Carlow-born in the county fell 6%; Dubliners in Carlow more than doubled from 3,300 to 7,500, almost half the county's Irish-born increase

SourceCSO Census county-of-birth tables B0432 / F1035

CSO B0432CSO F1035

Between 1996 and 2016 nearly 90% of population growth in Kildare, Meath and Wicklow was attributable to Dublin-born migrants

SourceCSO Census county-of-birth tables

CSO data

The price of homes in Dublin relative to elsewhere has risen dramatically since the 1980s

SourceAuthor's analysis of Department of the Environment series (to 1996), ESRI (1996-2006) and the Daft.ie report series (since 2006)

Daft.ie report series

In 1991 fewer than one in five commuters had what the census defined as a long commute; by 2016 more than two in five did

SourceCSO Census reports, 1991 and 2016

CSO data

'Pre-63' in property ads meant a subdivision predating the modern planning system

SourceLocal Government (Planning and Development) Act 1963

Britain's Town and Country Planning Act 1947 introduced permission-based planning

SourceTown and Country Planning Act 1947 (UK)

The Town & Regional Planning Act 1934 applied planning mainly to designated schemes in particular areas

SourceTown and Regional Planning Act 1934

The Local Government (Planning and Development) Act 1963 replaced the 1934 model with comprehensive permission-based planning from 1964; councils became planning authorities with development plans

SourceLocal Government (Planning and Development) Act 1963

Denmark's Finger Plan for Copenhagen was introduced in 1947

SourceEgnsplankontoret (1947), Skitseforslag til egnsplan for Storkoebenhavn, prepared on the initiative of Dansk Byplanlaboratorium by a team led by Peter Bredsdorff

Skitseforslag til egnsplan for Storkoebenhavn (1947)

Planning bribes were revealed by the Mahon Tribunal, starting in 1997

SourceTribunal of Inquiry into Certain Planning Matters and Payments (Flood/Mahon), established November 1997

The 1969 Buchanan Report described Ireland's economic geography as 'unusual' and warned of excessive concentration in the capital

SourceColin Buchanan & Partners, Regional Studies in Ireland (Dublin: An Foras Forbartha, 1968)

The 2002 National Spatial Strategy used the phrase 'balanced regional development'

SourceAlan de Bromhead and Ronan C. Lyons (2023), 'Social housing and the spread of population: Evidence from twentieth century Ireland', Journal of Urban Economics 138

Journal of Urban Economics 138, 2023Journal of Urban Economics 138

In small advanced economies the capital typically accounts for between a quarter and a third of the population; Ireland at ~28% is entirely ordinary

SourceAuthor's analysis of Eurostat, UN and citypopulation.de data

citypopulation.de

Ireland's next four cities are small relative to European peers, and Ireland has the highest share living in rural areas of all high-income countries

SourceAuthor's analysis of Eurostat, UN and citypopulation.de data

citypopulation.de

In 1963 the Committee on Industrial Organisation warned that scattering industry for political reasons was 'economically unjustifiable', noting firms required 'the advantages which tend to be found in areas where there are concentrations of industry'

SourceCommittee on Industrial Organisation report (1963)

CHART 11: share of a county's population born elsewhere in Ireland; Dublin fell from roughly one in six in 1986 to 12% in 2016 while the rest of the country rose to 25%

SourceCSO Census county-of-birth tables

CSO data

A 2018 government paper, Dominant Cities in Small Advanced Economies, found Ireland's second-tier cities smaller and less evenly spread than in peer countries

SourceDavid Barrett, Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation / IGEES (December 2018), 'Dominant Cities in Small Advanced Economies: Challenges and Policy Responses'

DBEI/IGEES (2018), Dominant Cities in Small Advanced Economies

The Labourers Acts, beginning in 1883 and lasting until World War I, created one of the earliest mass public housing programmes in Europe; rural district councils could borrow and acquire small plots

SourceLabourers (Ireland) Acts 1883 onwards

Eligibility required income below a threshold and ownership of no land

SourceLabourers (Ireland) Acts

By independence rural local authorities had built over 45,000 homes under the Labourers Acts, giving Ireland one of Europe's most extensive public housing stocks relative to population

SourceLocal Government Board / DLG returns

Work with Alan de Bromhead finds districts with more pre-WWI cottages saw less rural depopulation decade by decade to the 1970s

SourceAlan de Bromhead and Ronan C. Lyons (2023), 'Social housing and the spread of population: Evidence from twentieth century Ireland', Journal of Urban Economics 138, article 103603

Journal of Urban Economics 138, 2023Journal of Urban Economics 138

D. D. Sheehan, MP for West Cork, said in 1911 that the cottages kept people 'rooted to the soil'

SourceHansard, 1911

Work with Alan de Bromhead and Johann Ohler finds deaths from infectious disease fell from about 6 to 4 per 1,000 between 1890 and the Great War, with the cottages responsible for nearly half of the fall

SourceAlan de Bromhead, Ronan C. Lyons and Johann Ohler (2025), 'Build Better Health: Evidence from Ireland on Housing Quality and Mortality', EHES Working Paper 286 / UCD Centre for Economic Research WP2025/25

CEPR Discussion Paper 20725

The UK government could borrow more cheaply and for longer - often sixty years or more - than anyone else

SourceW.F. Bailey, The Irish Land Acts: A Short Sketch of Their History and Development (Dublin: HMSO, 1917), ch. 'The Labourers Acts'; corroborated by Norris, M. (2016), Property, Family and the Irish Welfare State, ch.2 pp.40-41, and Norris, UCD Geary Institute Working Paper WP2019/01 (2018) p.7

Bailey, The Irish Land Acts (1917)

The Free State launched the 'Million Pound Grant' of 1922 and an urban public housing programme

SourceHousing (Building Facilities) Act 1924 / 1922 grant scheme

De Valera withheld the land annuities from 1932; the resulting trade war ran 1932-1938 and ended with a lump-sum settlement far smaller than the debt

SourceAnglo-Irish Trade Agreement 1938

The new government established the Commission of Inquiry into the Sale of Labourers' Cottages almost immediately after taking office in 1932

SourceCommission of Inquiry into the Sale of Labourers' Cottages

Under the Labourers Act 1936 tenants could buy, with repayments set on average at about three-quarters of the existing rent, and councils required to repair before sale

SourceLabourers Act 1936

By 1938 over 50,000 cottages had been prepared for sale

SourceDepartment of Local Government and Public Health annual report

John Collins, a senior civil servant in the Department of Local Government and Public Health, set out the case against sale; a memo noted he did so 'With admirable courage'

SourceNorris (2016), Property, Family and the Irish Welfare State

Michelle Norris calls the early 1930s to mid-1950s the 'Golden Age' of Irish social housing

SourceNorris (2016) and Norris, 'Financing the Golden Age of Irish Social Housing, 1932-1956 (and the dark ages which followed)', UCD Geary Institute Working Paper WP2019/01 (2018)

During these decades more than half of all new homes built were provided by local authorities; by 1961 almost one in five households lived in public housing - the highest share in Irish history

SourceNorris (2016/2019); CSO Census 1961

CSO data

The Local Loans Fund, expanded after 1929, let councils borrow at stable long-term rates, with central subsidies and local property taxes covering the rest

SourceNorris, UCD Geary WP2019/01 (2018)

Philip Monahan, Cork Corporation city manager, pioneered income-linked 'differential rents' in the 1930s; the model spread nationally and was required by the 1966 Housing Act

SourceNorris (2016/2019); Housing Act 1966

By the late 1960s over three-quarters of all rural cottages owned by the state had passed into private hands

SourceNorris; Department of Local Government returns

The 1966 Housing Act extended purchase rights to urban tenants, with discounts increasing over time

SourceHousing Act 1966

CHART 12: total public homes built and sold off in Ireland since 1967

SourceDoE Housing Statistics Bulletins; local authority sales returns

In the 1970s alone nearly 55,000 local authority homes were sold - almost nine out of every ten new council homes built that decade

SourceAs Chart 12

Between 1967 and 1992 the state built 125,000 homes and sold 125,000 homes, in a country with roughly one million homes

SourceAs Chart 12; CSO Census housing stock

CSO data

By the mid-1960s central government was covering the full interest cost of housing loans, and eventually both interest and principal

SourceNorris, UCD Geary WP2019/01 (2018)

Mary Barbour organised tenant defence committees in Govan in autumn 1915; tens of thousands joined the Glasgow rent strike

SourceJoseph Melling (1983), Rent Strikes: People's Struggle for Housing in West Scotland 1890-1916 (Edinburgh: Polygon Books)

The Increase of Rent and Mortgage Interest (War Restrictions) Act 1915 was rushed through Parliament and applied to Ireland, fixing the 'standard rent' at its level on 3 August 1914 and making increases 'legally irrecoverable'

SourceIncrease of Rent and Mortgage Interest (War Restrictions) Act 1915

Landlords entered irrecoverable increases as 'arrears' in rent books; amendments were introduced to curb such intimidation

SourceContemporary guides to the 1915 Act

The Increase of Rent and Mortgage Interest (Restrictions) Act 1923 gave a three-year extension, retained the 1914 standard rent, restricted eviction to specified grounds subject to a reasonableness test, extended protection to a widowed spouse or resident family member, and excluded homes built after April 1919, local authority homes and most furnished lettings

SourceIncrease of Rent and Mortgage Interest (Restrictions) Act 1923

In 1946, 43% of homes were rented; Boyle in Roscommon over 60%; Clones in Monaghan and Carlow town almost 85%

SourceCensus of Population 1946

CSO data

Almost 12,000 homes were built in Ireland in 1938 but fewer than 1,000 in 1945

SourceDepartment of Local Government and Public Health annual reports

The Rent Restrictions Act 1946 created 'controlled dwellings' as a legal category with specified eviction grounds and improvement allowances, requiring repeated extension in the 1950s

SourceRent Restrictions Act 1946

Emigration in the 1950s was, in proportional terms, as bad as any time since the 1880s

SourceCSO Census / Population and Migration Estimates

CSO data

The Rent Restrictions Act 1960 excluded a dwelling from control where the use of furniture made up more than one-quarter of the total rent

SourceRent Restrictions Act 1960

Across Europe, first-generation rent controls produced price freezes, quality deterioration, landlord exit and conversion to owner-occupation

SourceKholodilin, K.A. (2024), 'Rent control effects through the lens of empirical research: An almost complete review of the literature', Journal of Housing Economics 63, 101983, doi:10.1016/j.jhe.2024.101983; Kholodilin, K.A. and Kohl, S. (2023), 'Social policy or crowding-out? Tenant protection in comparative long-run perspective', Housing Studies 38(4), pp. 707-743. For the taxonomy only: Arnott (1995), JEP 9(1), pp. 99-120; Turner and Malpezzi (2003), Swedish Economic Policy Review 10(1)

Journal of Housing Economics 63Housing Studies 38(4)Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(1)

Dublin Artisan Dwellings Company founded 1876; backers included the Guinness family and William Findlater; built 3,600 homes across more than thirty schemes 1879-1933; stopped building in 1933; remained the largest private landlord in Ireland until the late 2010s; began selling within a year of the 1960 Act; by 1979 had no housing left

SourceColum O'Riordan, 'The Dublin Artisans' Dwellings Company', Irish Architectural and Decorative Studies: The Journal of the Irish Georgian Society, vol. VII (Dublin: Irish Georgian Society, 2004), pp. 156-183 - built on the company's own archive (Irish Architectural Archive 79/26). Also F.H.A. Aalen (1984), in R.J. Bender (ed.), Mannheimer Geographische Arbeiten 17, pp. 161-190; McManus, R. (2011), PRIA 111C, p.265 n.15

Irish Architectural and Decorative Studies VII (2004)Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy 111C

A 1977 review found tenants outside rent control received no subsidies while spending a higher share of income on housing than any other group, while owner-occupiers received implicit support worth tens of millions of pounds a year

SourceNESC Report No. 23, Report on Housing Subsidies, paras. 23, 25, 26, 27

NESC Report No. 23

The Housing (Private Rented Dwellings) Bill 1981, introduced under Haughey, was referred by President Hillery to the Supreme Court, which struck down the rent freeze as an unjust attack on property rights

SourceIn re Article 26 and the Housing (Private Rented Dwellings) Bill 1981 [1983] IR 181; see also Blake v Attorney General [1982] IR 117

The Housing (Private Rented Dwellings) Act 1982 formally ended classical rent restriction

SourceHousing (Private Rented Dwellings) Act 1982

Rent Supplement was introduced in 1977 as an income support of last resort

SourceSupplementary Welfare Allowance scheme, 1977

By the 2000s tens of thousands of households relied on Rent Supplement

SourceDepartment of Social Protection statistics

CHART 13: share of households that are tenants paying market rents, 2024, selected countries

SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO02 (distribution of population by tenure status)

Eurostat ilc_lvho02

Ireland now has the second-smallest share paying market rents in Western Europe

SourceAs Chart 13

Germany, Austria and Sweden normalised renting through deliberate design with patient capital at scale

SourceScanlon, K., Whitehead, C. and Fernández Arrigoitia, M. (eds) (2014), Social Housing in Europe (Wiley-Blackwell); Wolfgang Amann and Sandra Jurasszovich (October 2016), Case Study - The Austrian System of Social Housing, IIBW (Institute for Real Estate, Construction and Housing), prepared for the Habitat III Conference, Quito; Voigtlander, M. (2009), 'Why is the German Homeownership Rate so Low?', Housing Studies 24(3), pp. 355-372; Kofner, S. (2014), Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 29(2), pp. 255-275

Housing Studies 24(3)Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 29(2)Social Housing in Europe (2014)

The Residential Tenancies Act 2004 modernised the sector and set up the Residential Tenancies Board

SourceResidential Tenancies Act 2004

In early 1987 CSO projections suggested Ireland might have around 3.4 million people by 2021

SourceCSO Population and Labour Force Projections (published c.1988)

CSO data

Ireland passed 3.8 million 'before the projection was ten years old'

SourceCSO Population and Migration Estimates

CSO data

In 1845 the population of Ireland stood at about 8.5 million and had been rising for a century and a half

SourceCensus of Ireland 1841; historical demography

CSO data

In the 1850s real wages in the United States were roughly three times those available in Ireland

SourceJeffrey G. Williamson (1995), 'The Evolution of Global Labor Markets since 1830: Background Evidence and Hypotheses', Explorations in Economic History 32(2), pp. 141-196, doi:10.1006/exeh.1995.1006, at pp. 155-156. Secondary: Hatton, T.J. and Williamson, J.G. (1998), The Age of Mass Migration (Oxford University Press)

Explorations in Economic History 32(2)

By the mid-1920s the island's population was roughly half its pre-Famine level and by the 1960s effectively unchanged

SourceCensus of Ireland / CSO; NISRA

CSO data

Kilkenny's population fell from over 200,000 in 1841 to just 60,000 by the 1960s, a fall of 70%; several counties from Cavan to Clare fell further

SourceCSO county population series

CSO data

The typical country now has a population over six times its 1840s level; Ireland is unique in the modern world in having a smaller population than two centuries ago

SourceHistorical population data (e.g. Maddison Project / UN)

Between 1920 and 1995 roughly 1.3 million more people left Ireland than arrived

SourceCSO Population and Migration Estimates / Census

CSO data

Household size fell 6% between 1966 and 1986 and 20% in the following decade; a country where households once contained four people now had fewer than three

SourceCSO Census average household size

CSO data

Projections made in 1991 put Ireland's 2021 population at 3.8 million; the country passed that level in 2000

SourceCSO Population and Labour Force Projections (1991)

CSO data

Post-2006 census projections included a most optimistic scenario reaching 7 million by 2041

SourceCSO Population and Labour Force Projections 2011-2041

CSO data

Forecasts after the 2011 census assumed a baseline of 5.6 million

SourceCSO Population and Labour Force Projections 2016-2046

CSO data

By the mid-2010s Ireland was again seeing population growth of more than 1% a year

SourceCSO Population and Migration Estimates

CSO data

CHART 14: projected ten-year change in population after each census (high and low scenarios) vs actual change, 2002-2016 plus the HNDA

SourceCSO Population and Labour Force Projections for each vintage; CSO actuals; HNDA

CSO data

2002 projections allowed for an Ireland 13% larger in 2012 but the actual increase was 17%; 2016 forecasts assumed 8-13% but the outturn was 17%

SourceAs Chart 14

The HNDA saw an Ireland only 6% larger in 2031 than 2021, but by 2026 Ireland was already 9% bigger than in 2021

SourceHousing Need and Demand Assessment; CSO population estimates

CSO data

By the early 2020s Ireland's population had grown by over 40% in a generation while projections assumed future growth of 12-29%

SourceCSO; official projections

CSO data

In 2023 a proposal for 98 new homes in Greystones was refused because, under the county development plan adopted the previous year, the town had already reached its housing allocation for 2028

SourceWicklow County Council planning decision, 2023; Wicklow County Development Plan 2022-2028

Irish corporate tax income surged from EUR3.5bn in 2011 to EUR35bn in 2025

SourceRevenue Commissioners / Department of Finance tax receipts

Policymakers in the 1970s expected the country to grow from 3 million in 1971 to 3.8 million by 1991; the actual 1991 figure was closer to 3.5 million

SourceOfficial 1970s population projection

Ireland's fertility rate has fallen sharply, as across most countries

SourceCSO Vital Statistics

CSO data

The HNDA was created as part of the National Planning Framework in 2018

SourceNational Planning Framework (Project Ireland 2040), 2018; HNDA guidance

In the 2020s the Office of the Planning Regulator repeatedly stepped in where local authorities zoned more land than national projections suggested was needed

SourceOffice of the Planning Regulator, submission on the draft Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown County Development Plan (16 April 2021); Ministerial Direction under section 31 of the Planning and Development Act 2000, 28 September 2022

OPR submission on the draft DLR development plan (2021)Ministerial Direction, DLR County Development Plan 2022-2028

The Housing Commission highlighted a planning system struggling to respond to demand and a persistent gap between homes needed and delivered

SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024)

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

In early 2010 the author published the Daft.ie Rental Report for 2009, finding falling rental availability in Dublin; within eighteen months availability had halved and rents were rising

SourceDaft.ie Rental Reports, 2009 and 2010

Daft.ie report series

Housing has consistently been one of the top two issues for Irish voters

SourceEurobarometer 'most important issues facing the country'

Major national strategies since the crash: Construction 2020, Rebuilding Ireland, Housing for All, Delivering Homes Building Communities

SourceGovernment of Ireland housing strategies

Roughly EUR1 billion spent on housing in 2015, just about making the top ten spending areas; EUR9.3 billion in 2025

SourceRevised Estimates for Public Services / DPER databank

Help to Buy was introduced in 2016, followed by the First Home shared-equity scheme

SourceFinance Act 2016; First Home Scheme (2022)

Evidence accumulated that a large share of Help to Buy recipients would have purchased anyway, and that the scheme fed into higher housing prices

SourceDepartment of Finance Help to Buy reviews (Indecon, 2017 and 2022); ESRI research

Rent Pressure Zones were introduced in 2016 and tightened in 2021

SourcePlanning and Development (Housing) and Residential Tenancies Act 2016; Residential Tenancies (No. 2) Act 2021

By the 2010s the dominant mechanism for social rental need had shifted to subsidising private tenancies, notably via the Housing Assistance Payment

SourceHousing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014; DoHLGH social housing delivery data

The Strategic Housing Development process was introduced in 2017, letting large projects apply directly to An Bord Pleanala, and was abolished in 2023

SourcePlanning and Development (Housing) and Residential Tenancies Act 2016 (SHD from 2017); Large-scale Residential Development from Dec 2021

By the mid-2020s delivering a typical new apartment in Dublin often required costs exceeding half a million euro per unit

SourceAuthor calculation (Ch4)

The major 2024 Planning and Development Act largely left the underlying discretionary structure intact

SourcePlanning and Development Act 2024

Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown was told its plan for significantly more homes did not comply with national guidelines on compact living

SourceOffice of the Planning Regulator, submission on the draft Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown County Development Plan (16 April 2021); Ministerial Direction under section 31 of the Planning and Development Act 2000, 28 September 2022

OPR submission on the draft DLR development plan (2021)Ministerial Direction, DLR County Development Plan 2022-2028

When the Housing Commission published its deficit estimate in 2024, officials disputed the methodology before an Oireachtas committee

SourceOireachtas Joint Committee on Housing transcript, 2024

In late 2016 the author was asked by the Minister for Housing to comment on plans to reintroduce rent controls

SourceAuthor's account

The international literature on rent controls is unambiguous: controls protect sitting tenants but shrink the market and open a wedge between insiders and outsiders

SourceDiamond, R., McQuade, T. and Qian, F. (2019), 'The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco', American Economic Review 109(9), pp. 3365-3394, doi:10.1257/aer.20181289; Sims, D.P. (2007), Journal of Urban Economics 61(1), pp. 129-151; Autor, Palmer and Pathak (2014), Journal of Political Economy 122(3), pp. 661-717; Kholodilin (2024) as above; O'Toole, Martinez-Cillero and Ahrens (2021), Journal of Housing Economics 52, 101769

Journal of Housing Economics 63American Economic Review 109(9)Journal of Urban Economics 61(1)

In 2021 the government tightened the regime further, scrapping pro-supply measures and giving Ireland one of the strictest rent-control frameworks in the world

SourceResidential Tenancies (No. 2) Act 2021

CHART 15: five-year change in rents for sitting tenants ('stayers') and in the open market ('movers'), 2010-2025

SourceRTB Rent Index (sitting tenancies); Daft.ie (open market)

Daft.ie report series

In the decade after controls were introduced, stayers' rents rose by one-quarter while open-market rents rose by more than three times as much

SourceAs Chart 15

Work with Tom Gillespie, Janez Kren and Conor O'Toole, using more than a decade of tenancy registration and listings data, finds landlords left the market where RPZs applied - tenancies and listings fell while sales listings rose

SourceTom Gillespie, Janez Kren, Ronan C. Lyons and Conor O'Toole (2025), 'The supply side effects of rent controls: Evidence from Ireland', Journal of Housing Economics 70, article 102099

Journal of Housing Economics, 2025Journal of Housing Economics 70

'Ireland stands apart in the severity of its crisis' relative to peers

SourceOECD (2024), Affordable Housing Database, indicator HM1.1 'Housing stock and construction', https://oe.cd/ahd

OECD, HM1.1 Housing stock and construction

CHART 16: the housing triangle of prices, costs and incomes

SourceAuthor's own framework

Typology of Land-Led (Singapore, Netherlands, Japan), City-Led (Finland, Denmark), Plan-Led (France, Austria, Portugal) and Funding-Led (UK, Australia, Canada, US) systems

SourceFinland: Ministry of the Environment, 'Agreements on land use, housing and transport' (ym.fi); Helsinki region MAL 2024-2035. Denmark: Plan- og Landdistriktsstyrelsen, 'Fingerplanen' (plst.dk), Fingerplan 2019. Singapore: URA 'Long-Term Plan'; Phang, S.-Y. and Helble, M. (2016), Housing Policies in Singapore, ADBI Working Paper 559, p.5

Finnish Ministry of the Environment, MAL agreementsFingerplan 2019 (BEK nr. 312)

Ireland's plan hierarchy: National Planning Framework, National Development Plan, Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies, county/city development plans, local area plans

SourceNPF; NDP; RSES documents

CHART 17: number of homes built, official target, and estimated true housing requirement

SourceCSO NDQ completions; government housing targets; author's requirement estimate

CSO data

Targets have consistently exceeded completions but fallen below the true requirement

SourceAs Chart 17

A local councillor welcomed the Greystones decision, saying a pause would 'allow infrastructure to catch up'

SourceLocal/national press report, 2023

Since the mid-2010s the annual homes target moved from 25,000 to 30,000, then 33,000, then 40,000, each time only after shortages emerged

SourceRebuilding Ireland (2016); Housing for All (2021); revised NPF targets

In 2022 there were 225,000 homes in the Dublin City Council area, 65,000 of them apartments; almost 780,000 homes across the eight Greater Dublin Area local authorities

SourceCSO Census 2022 housing stock by local authority

CSO data

Finland's major urban regions operate MAL agreements (land use, housing, transport) in which the state funds infrastructure in return for housing delivery commitments; deals run twelve years and are reviewed every four

SourceFinnish Ministry of the Environment, 'Agreements on land use, housing and transport'; MAL agreement between the State and the municipalities of the Helsinki region, 2024-2035

Finnish Ministry of the Environment, MAL agreements

Denmark's Finger Plan directs growth along rail corridors with protected green wedges

SourceEgnsplankontoret (1947), Skitseforslag til egnsplan for Storkoebenhavn; Fingerplan 2007, Landsplandirektiv for hovedstadsomraadets planlaegning (Ministry of the Environment), revised 2013, 2017 and 2019

Skitseforslag til egnsplan for Storkoebenhavn (1947)Fingerplan 2007, landsplandirektiv

Ireland's Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies cover three regions - Eastern and Midland, Southern, Northern and Western - unrelated to real city regions

SourceRegional Assemblies / RSES documents

Planning for a range such as 50,000-80,000 homes a year, 'in line with the Housing Commission's analysis'

SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024)

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Mid-2020s: around 1.9 million households; a population of ~7 million by 2050 with average household size ~2.1 implies ~3.3 million households, an increase of three-quarters in a generation

SourceAuthor's projection; CSO population projections

CSO data

By mid-century Ireland is likely to have about twice as many one-person households and more than double the number of two-person households, with only modest growth in larger households

SourceAuthor's projection

About 90% of homes in Ireland are houses; the single most common home is a six-room detached house; only 8% are terraced houses or apartments with two or three main rooms

SourceCSO Census 2022 (dwelling type and rooms)

CSO data

CHART 18: share of all homes that are houses rather than apartments, by European country

SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO01

Eurostat ilc_lvho01

More than 1.3 million homes have five or more rooms, but the 2022 census recorded just 364,000 families with two or more children under 20; unlikely to exceed 500,000 families with children by 2050

SourceCSO Census 2022

CSO data

Across the EU roughly half of homes are houses; in Spain just one-third; in France closer to two-thirds; Ireland is the most house-dominated country in Europe at nine in ten

SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO01

Eurostat ilc_lvho01

Life expectancy in the 1950s was only 65

SourceCSO Irish Life Tables

CSO data

Between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s about six in every seven homes built was a larger and/or rural home

SourceDoE/CSO completions by type and location

CSO data

Dutch housing policy sets specific targets for student housing and for housing suitable for older people, including no-stairs apartments and homes linked to care

SourceNetherlands national housing programmes

An Irish councillor said housing should be for 'real people' rather than students

Ireland may have had almost 700 train stations in the 1910s but has fewer than 200 todaycorrection

SourceAlan Fernihough, 'Irish Railway Stations 1834-2000', CEPH Data Hub, Centre for Economics, Policy and History, Trinity College Dublin, https://ceph.ie/data-set/data-set-1/ (digitised from S. Johnson, Johnson's Atlas and Gazetteer of the Railways of Ireland, Midland Publishing, 1997); NTA, National Rail Census Report 2024 (April 2025), s.1.1 p.4; Translink, Network Statement 2026, Appendix 3

CEPH Data Hub, Irish Railway Stations 1834-2000

Canada built a housing system where two-thirds of homes are houses; its Housing Accelerator Fund pays cities to permit more apartments and multi-unit housing, with low-cost finance for rental, student and older-person housing

SourceStatistics Canada; CMHC Housing Accelerator Fund

New Zealand changed its planning rules to allow more townhouses, duplexes and small apartment buildings; most urban residential land now allows medium-density housing by default

SourceNZ Medium Density Residential Standards (Resource Management (Enabling Housing Supply and Other Matters) Amendment Act 2021)

Australia's Housing Accord promotes higher-density housing in well-located areas

SourceNational Housing Accord (Australia, 2022)

Japan has flexible national zoning allowing a wide mix of housing types in most urban areas

SourceJapanese City Planning Act zoning system

In 2022 Dublin City Council wanted to limit one- and two-bedroom homes

SourceDraft Dublin City Development Plan 2022-2028

Six- and eight-storey buildings are the norm in many European suburbs while the cap in Irish suburbs remains at four

SourceIrish building height guidelines (Urban Development and Building Heights Guidelines 2018); European comparators

Portugal provides rent support specifically for younger households; France offers a state-backed rental guarantee to help younger tenants; Australia has tax incentives to encourage downsizing

SourcePortuguese Porta 65 Jovem; French Visale guarantee; Australian superannuation downsizer contribution

Irish housing policy has recognised density in the National Planning Framework and revised Apartment Design Guidelines

SourceNational Planning Framework; Sustainable Urban Housing: Design Standards for New Apartments

A four-acre site in Killiney, zoned for housing and a short walk from the DART, was found by a feasibility study to accommodate around 80 homes while retaining the original Victorian building, but could end up as a single private mansion

SourcePress coverage, mid-2020s; the feasibility study

Japan uses a small number of national zoning categories applying directly to individual plots, with a technical 'building confirmation' process and limited third-party objection rights

SourceJapanese City Planning Act and Building Standards Act

German cities use legally binding Bebauungsplaene specifying building envelope, height, density, use and sometimes materials; a compliant proposal generally must be granted permission

SourceGerman Baugesetzbuch (BauGB)

French municipalities prepare Plans Locaux d'Urbanisme, but the permit stage involves more discretion, with objections and legal challenges common in larger cities

SourceFrench Code de l'urbanisme

The UK operates 'development control' rather than zoning, with each application assessed on its merits against 'material considerations'

SourceUK Town and Country Planning Act 1990 and NPPF

CHART 19: time from grant of permission to first home completed, 1,897 large-scale residential projects in the Greater Dublin Area with at least one completion, 2018-2024

SourceRonan C. Lyons and Eamonn Sweeney (2025), 'Time to build: Rules-based planning and construction project duration in Dublin', Journal of Housing Economics 70, article 102089

Journal of Housing Economics, 2025Journal of Housing Economics 70

It takes almost three years (median 32 months) for a typical large residential project to go from permission to first completion; only one-third complete within 2 years; almost as many take over 3.5 years

SourceAs Chart 19

In 1976 local planning decisions became appealable to a national board

SourceLocal Government (Planning and Development) Act 1976 (An Bord Pleanala)

Major consolidating legislation in 2000 and a further overhaul in the Planning and Development Act 2024

SourcePlanning and Development Act 2000; Planning and Development Act 2024

Applications are judged against 'proper planning and sustainable development'

SourcePlanning and Development Act 2000, s.34

In Killiney residents successfully challenged a nearby housing scheme on grounds of neighbourhood character; a nursing home proposal on an adjoining street was similarly entangled; a scheme for nearly 300 homes in Deansgrange approved by An Bord Pleanala under SHD was overturned by the High Court on judicial review

SourceCourt records and press coverage

The Jubilee Line Extension cost about GBP3.5 billion; new stations raised nearby land values by an estimated GBP2.8 billion; a 2.5% land value tax would have generated about GBP70 million a year

SourceJones Lang LaSalle, Transport for London Land & Property Value Study: Assessing the Change in Land & Property Values Attributable to the Jubilee Line Extension - Pilot Study, Southwark & Canary Wharf (2004); TfL press release, 8 July 2004. Proximate citation: Maxwell, D. and Vigor, A. (eds), Time for Land Value Tax? (London: IPPR, 2005), p.6. Successor study: Atisreal and Geofutures (2005), Property Value Study, TfL

TfL press release, 8 July 2004IPPR, Time for Land Value Tax? (2005)

Ireland already has Part V requirements, development levies and the Residential Zoned Land Tax as value-capture mechanisms

SourcePlanning and Development Act 2000 Part V; Finance Act 2021 (RZLT)

The United States exempts most gains on a main home and allows mortgage interest deduction; rental assistance is limited and targeted; one in three US households rent

SourceUS Internal Revenue Code s.121 and s.163; US Census Bureau tenure data

CSO data

France's HLM social rental pillar provides about one-sixth of homes, to a wide range of households, while France also subsidises ownership through loans and tax incentives

SourceFrench housing statistics (SDES / INSEE)

In Switzerland just over half of households are renters; housing wealth is subject to annual taxation and owner-occupiers taxed on imputed rent

SourceSwiss Federal Statistical Office; Swiss federal and cantonal tax law

Estonia and other post-Soviet countries privatised public housing en masse

SourcePost-socialist housing privatisation literature

Across the EU about 21% of households rent at market rates; in Ireland 13.5%, the second-lowest in Western Europe

SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO02

Eurostat ilc_lvho02

For every ten market-renter households in Ireland, twenty-four own outright with no mortgage; in Denmark three; in Switzerland one

SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO02

Eurostat ilc_lvho02

Irish worked example: marginal income tax rate about 50% and CGT 33%, giving a EUR146,000 swing over ten years

SourceRevenue Commissioners tax rates; author calculation

Denmark: no direct imputed rent tax but an annual charge just under 1% on owner-occupied homes; no CGT on owner-occupied sales; marginal income tax ~50%; CGT 42% - giving EUR28,000 vs EUR124,000

SourceDanish property value tax (ejendomsvaerdiskat) and income/capital tax rules

Switzerland/Basel: Eigenmietwert set at roughly two-thirds of market rent; Grundstueckgewinnsteuer of approximately 40% at a ten-year holding period; totals of about EUR111,000 and EUR136,000

SourceSwiss federal imputed rent rules; Basel-Stadt Grundstueckgewinnsteuer rates

CHART 20: estimated income and capital gains tax after ten years, Dublin, Copenhagen and Basel, owner-occupied vs rented out

SourceAuthor calculation on national tax codes

Irish local property tax is less than 0.1% of market value a year; in many peer countries property tax is five or ten times higher

SourceRevenue LPT rates; OECD

The 2022 Commission on Taxation and Welfare found property taxes account for less than 2.5% of Irish tax revenues, compared with roughly 10% in the US, UK and Canada, and called the blanket PPR CGT exemption an 'anomaly' to be restricted over time

SourceCommission on Taxation and Welfare, Foundations for the Future (2022)

A 2009 Commission on Taxation found that exempting homes from capital gains tax cost the exchequer around EUR2.4 billion a year

SourceCommission on Taxation Report 2009

Rental reforms introduced in Ireland in 2026 allow rents to reset to market levels when a tenant leaves, but created a layered system of landlord categories

SourceIrish residential tenancies reform, 2026

Since 2016 the rules governing private renting have changed in almost every calendar year

SourceResidential tenancies legislation 2016-2026

In Vienna roughly six in ten residents live in subsidised or cost-controlled housing, with Gemeindebau a mainstream choice

SourceCity of Vienna housing statistics

Finland's ARA cost rental system provides over 300,000 homes at rents consistently below the private market; Helsinki is the only major European capital where rough sleeping has been effectively eliminated

SourceARA (Housing Finance and Development Centre of Finland); Y-Foundation / Housing First Finland

The Irish government's housing budget in 2026 was over EUR7 billion, only about half spent in a way that uses housing's long-lived nature

SourceBudget 2026 / Revised Estimates

Ireland spends almost EUR600 million a year on Housing Assistance Payments and the Rental Accommodation Scheme; all-in perhaps EUR2 billion a year competing with citizens for a fixed pool of rental homes

SourceDoHLGH expenditure data

State-led delivery cost around EUR350,000 for a one-bed and just over EUR500,000 for a two-bed where land is state-owned; blended EUR425,000; EUR2bn as a 20% deposit unlocks EUR10bn and just over 23,000 homes a year

SourceAuthor calculation

Financed at 3.25% over forty years with a management and maintenance allowance, cost rents are about EUR1,250 (one-bed) and EUR1,700 (two-bed), roughly 40% below market floors

SourceAuthor calculation

Ireland's cost rental scheme, launched in the early 2020s, builds rents bottom-up over forty years with a low-interest state loan covering almost one-third of cost, and requires rents at least one-quarter below market

SourceAffordable Housing Act 2021; Cost Rental Equity Loan scheme

In Germany the real cost of building a home is only about 10% higher than in the mid-1990s, most of it post-pandemic

SourceDestatis construction price index; OECD

In Norway building a home cost about 50% more in the mid-2020s than the mid-1990s in real terms

SourceStatistics Norway (SSB) construction cost indices; OECD

In Canada the real cost of building a home has doubled since the 1990s

SourceStatistics Canada building construction price index; OECD

Between 2020 and 2023, real construction costs rose about 7% in France, Germany and Norway but roughly one-third in Canada

SourceAs above; INSEE ICC for France

Norway's oil boom raised wages in energy and related sectors, pulling up construction pay without matching productivity

SourceTodsen, S. (2018), 'Produktivitetsfall i bygg og anlegg', Statistisk sentralbyra, 19 January 2018; IMF, Norway: Selected Issues, Country Report 18/280 (24 July 2018); Mork, K.A. (2022), 'The Long Norwegian Boom: Dutch Disease After All?', The Energy Journal 43(1); Cappelen, Eika and Prestmo, SSB Rapporter 59/2013

Henry Ford, 'son of a Cork man', applied assembly logic to cars; William Levitt founded six communities in the USA including three still called Levittown

SourceThe Henry Ford (thehenryford.org) on the Ford family's Cork origins; Levitt & Sons company history

The Henry Ford

Dublin ranks alongside Zurich as one of the most expensive small cities in which to build an apartment

SourceThe 'Building Homes' ten-city study (Ch4)

SCSI/TCD, Building Homes (2024)

The cost of building a home in Ireland in the mid-2020s is about 130% higher than in the mid-1990s

SourceSCSI series deflated

SCSI

Real build costs rose in the late 1970s but fell back in the 1980s; by the mid-1990s they were largely the same as the mid-1970s

SourceSCSI series deflated

SCSI

Between 1995 and 2000 Irish build costs rose by more than half while German costs fell about 7% and Canadian, Norwegian and French costs were broadly flat

SourceSCSI; Destatis; StatCan; SSB; INSEE

SCSI

Even after the crash, the underlying cost of building in the 2000s and 2010s remained about 50% higher than in 1995

SourceSCSI series deflated

SCSI

Irish construction wages are shaped by sector-wide wage-setting and track the wider economy rather than construction productivity

SourceSectoral Employment Order for the construction sector; CSO earnings data

CSO data

Between 2020 and 2023 real construction costs rose roughly 32% in Ireland, as in Canada

SourceSCSI / CSO WPI; StatCan

CSO data

Between 2017 and 2025 construction wages in Ireland rose 22%, broadly in line with wider prices, without clear evidence of more homes per hour

SourceCSO Earnings and Labour Costs (EHQ series)

CSO data

A serious strategy should aim to bring the cost of a two-bed apartment from more than EUR500,000 (before land) closer to EUR400,000 in today's money

SourceAuthor's proposal

A single EUR2 billion fund, invested once and rebuilt from its own rents, could build between 50,000 and 130,000 cost-rental homes over eighty years at break-even rents of roughly EUR1,275-EUR1,750

SourceAuthor calculation

Spent outright, EUR2 billion would build around 4,700 homes at an average EUR427,000 each, assuming state-provided land

SourceAuthor calculation

CHART 21: break-even monthly rent and total homes built over eighty years, by return and payback period, for a EUR2 billion public fund

SourceAuthor calculation

Recycled quickly at 5% the fund could build more than two million homes but at break-even rents above EUR3,000/month; at 1% used once, rents fall below EUR1,000 but fewer than 20,000 homes are built

SourceAs Chart 21

Germany stays closer to market terms while the United States uses tax credits to cover more of the upfront cost

SourceGerman social housing finance; US Low-Income Housing Tax Credit

Ireland has around two million homes in the mid-2020s and will need closer to three and a half million by mid-century; if one-fifth should be social or affordable rental that means roughly 700,000, against about 250,000 today - so around half a million needed over thirty years

SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024); author calculation

Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

Sweden's Million Programme built a million homes in a decade in the 1960s and 1970s, in a country of roughly two million homes at the time

SourceSwedish Million Programme (Miljonprogrammet)

A cost rent of EUR1,750 requires around EUR63,000 of take-home pay to carry at one-third of income

SourceAuthor calculation

A fresh capital commitment of about EUR2 billion a year - less than a third of the mid-2020s housing budget - would underwrite half a million cost-rental homes over thirty years

SourceAuthor calculation

Forty years and 3% is roughly the longest term and rate at which the Irish state could realistically borrow in the 2020s

SourceNTMA bond issuance data

Following a Supreme Court ruling, Irish governments are judged not only on what they say they will do on climate but on whether they produce credible plans and deliver against them

SourceFriends of the Irish Environment CLG v Government of Ireland [2020] IESC 49 ('Climate Case Ireland')