Sources and Calculations

Brittle: chapter-by-chapter notes

Underlying sources for the statements and figures in Brittle: How the Housing Crisis Is Breaking Ireland, together with the basis for the calculations, chapter by chapter.

397 entries22 chaptersDownload the full table (Excel)

Where a source turns out to differ from the printed text — a date, a figure, a form of words — the note gives what the source actually says. A handful of entries are marked as corrections.

Chapters 5 and 21 include results based on analysis of strictly controlled Research Microdata Files provided by the Central Statistics Office. The CSO does not take any responsibility for the views expressed or the outputs generated from this research.

Corrections and additions are welcome.

PBad, but Not a Bubble

  1. Housing prices in Ireland are 'effectively back to their pre-crash peaks' two decades on

    SourceCSO Residential Property Price Index (HPM09; annual series HPA13) vs 2007 peak; Keely and Lyons long-run index

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)CSO HPM09CSO HPA13

  2. Number of homes available to rent on the open market in many cities is 'regularly below 100'; in towns like Newtownforbes and Mullingar can be counted on one hand

    SourceDaft.ie Rental Report stock-on-the-market series (Lyons)

    Daft.ie report series

  3. CHART A: average annual real growth in sale prices and rents by period

    SourceKeely and Lyons long-run price/rent series; CSO Consumer Price Index (CPA01 from 1975, spliced to the historical CPI series before that from 1975, with the historical CPI series before that, as used in the paper) (CPA01 from 1975, spliced to the historical CPI series before that) for deflation; Daft.ie

    Daft.ie report seriesRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)CSO CPA01

  4. 1995-2005: real prices rose ~15%/yr, rents ~3%/yr - prices rose about five times faster than rents

    SourceAs Chart A

  5. Rents fell back between 2001 and 2004 as construction surged

    SourceDaft.ie rent index / Keely and Lyons rent series

    Daft.ie report seriesRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  6. 2015-2025: real prices grew almost 5%/yr, rents 4%/yr

    SourceAs Chart A

  7. In the 2020s the number of new homes added just about matches the lowest level of completions per household in the second half of the 20th century

    SourceCSO New Dwelling Completions (NDQ) + DoHLGH historical completions; household counts

    CSO data

1The Missing Homes

  1. In some European countries the average household size is now below two persons

    SourceEurostat ilc_lvph01 (average household size)

    Eurostat ilc_lvph01

  2. In poorer, more rural societies the typical household has more than four people

    SourceUN DESA Population Division, Database on Household Size and Composition 2026 (UN DESA/POP/2026/DC/NO.15); Eurostat ilc_lvph01 'Average household size'; OECD Family Database SF1.1

    Eurostat ilc_lvph01

    Eurostat puts three European countries below two persons per household: Lithuania at 1.8, Denmark and Finland at 1.9. Ireland is 2.7, joint third-highest in the EU. At the other end, the UN database gives Mali 8.93 and Senegal 8.45; the low-income group averages 5.70, though not every country in it exceeds four.

  3. Twice as many adults aged 20-34 living with their parents in 2022 as a decade earlier

    SourceEurostat EU-SILC (ilc_lvps08)

    Eurostat ilc_lvps08

  4. The Housing Commission published a major report on fixing Irish housing in 2024

    SourceReport of The Housing Commission (May 2024)

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  5. The Housing Commission ran a dedicated survey of over 1,000 adults aged 18-39 on how they live vs how they would choose to live

    SourceHousing Commission commissioned survey (18-39 cohort)

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  6. The Housing Commission survey 'is now being copied by other European countries'

    SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024), ISBN 978-1-903848-88-3, s.2.8.1 and Appendix 1B.2

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

    The Commission described the survey as designed “both to inform its analysis and to act as a template for future efforts to understand housing requirements and any existing housing deficit”. Its central finding: 26 per cent of 18–39 year olds lived with their parents, against 4 per cent who would choose to. The approach was subsequently taken up at European level in Eurofound’s study of youth housing across the EU.

  7. Only slightly more than half of respondents were happy with their living arrangements

    SourceHousing Commission survey

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  8. Just under half lived with parents or with friends/strangers, but only 15% would choose to; ratio of about six constrained to one chooser

    SourceHousing Commission survey

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  9. Just 4% of adults under 40 would choose to live with their parents

    SourceHousing Commission survey

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  10. The Housing Commission used four approaches (long-run household size trends, census data on unrelated adults sharing, headship rates vs England, EU surveys) and found a deficit of 210,000-250,000 homes in 2022

    SourceReport of The Housing Commission (2024), housing deficit chapter/annex

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  11. In 2011 Ireland had roughly 1.65m households and about the same number of occupied homes

    SourceCSO Census 2011

    CSO data

  12. Population rose from about 4.5m in 2011 to roughly 5.5m by the mid-2020s

    SourceCSO Census 2011 & 2022; CSO Population and Migration Estimates

    CSO data

  13. Those extra 1m people alone would have required around 350,000 additional homes

    SourceAuthor calculation

  14. Falling shadow household size 2011-2026 alone would have required roughly 250,000 additional homes

    SourceAuthor calculation

  15. Household requirement rose ~40% 2011-2026, from ~1.65m to ~2.3m

    SourceAuthor calculation on Housing Commission method

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  16. Housing stock grew only about 20%, from roughly 1.65m to just under 2m

    SourceCSO Census housing stock; CSO NDQ completions

    CSO data

  17. CHART 1: estimated housing deficit 2011-2026

    SourceAuthor calculation extending the Housing Commission method

    Report of The Housing Commission (2024)

  18. Deficit >110,000 by 2016; ~230,000 by 2022; just over 340,000 by 2026

    SourceAs Chart 1

  19. In 2026 Ireland had roughly two million homes, allowing for normal vacancy - so one home in six is missing

    SourceAuthor calculation

  20. Over the decade to 2026 the household requirement grew ~50,000/yr while Ireland added ~25,000 homes/yr

    SourceAuthor calculation; CSO NDQ

    CSO data

  21. Ireland's housing is 'almost uniquely in Europe' concentrated in houses, not apartments; apartments a much smaller share than comparable countries

    SourceEurostat ILC_LVHO01 (dwelling type)

    Eurostat ilc_lvho01

  22. In 2022 Dublin City Council's draft development plan sought to tighten limits on one-bedroom apartments, citing remote working and space needs

    SourceDraft Dublin City Development Plan 2022-2028

  23. The same draft plan moved to limit purpose-built (build-to-rent) rental homes to specific zones with new conditions

    SourceDraft Dublin City Development Plan 2022-2028

2Rootless or Roofless

  1. In the Netherlands policymakers distinguish 'dakloos' (roofless) from a broader homelessness category

    SourceCBS, 'Dakloos in Nederland' and '33 duizend mensen dakloos begin 2024' (May 2025); FEANTSA ETHOS and ETHOS Light (2017); Nationaal Actieplan Dakloosheid: Eerst een Thuis (30 Nov 2022); Renkema, Verwarwoordenboek, 'dakloze/thuisloze'

    “Dakloos” translates literally as roofless. Dutch usage has long distinguished it from “thuisloos” – someone with a roof but no home – and the same split runs through FEANTSA’s ETHOS typology, which separates rooflessness from houselessness. Since 2022 the Dutch statistical office has used “dakloosheid” as the umbrella term under ETHOS Light, counting 33,000 people at the start of 2024.

  2. Across most of Europe the share of young adults living with parents changed little in the last decade; fell slightly in some countries

    SourceEurostat EU-SILC (ilc_lvps08)

    Eurostat ilc_lvps08

  3. CHART 2: change in share of adults living with parents (pp), 2012-2022, Ireland vs euro area and peers

    SourceEurostat EU-SILC

    Eurostat database

  4. Euro area: share of 25-29s living at home rose just 1pp; 30-34s smaller still

    SourceAs Chart 2

  5. Ireland: 20-24s rose from 70% to nearly 90%; 25-29s doubled from 34% to 68%; 30-34s +12pp; 20-34 group from two in five to three in five

    SourceAs Chart 2

  6. Germany and Sweden fell; Denmark and Finland barely moved; Spain and Italy rose only a handful of pp

    SourceAs Chart 2

  7. There are about 70,000 people in Ireland for each year of age between 20 and 40

    SourceCSO population by single year of age (Census 2022 / PEA11)

    CSO data

  8. About 600 'forever' relationships start every week in Ireland (30,000 couples per cohort, allowing 15% never coupling)

    SourceAuthor calculation

3Removing the Batteries

  1. Irish property prices rose for thirteen consecutive years between 1958-1971 and again 1993-2006; the run from 2012 is set to become the longest on record

    SourceKeely and Lyons long-run Irish housing price series (from 1945)

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  2. Research with Richard Keely constructed a consistent price record back to 1945

    SourceRichard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons (2022), 'Housing Prices, Yields and Credit Conditions in Dublin since 1945', Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3), pp. 404-439

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  3. Over eight decades housing prices rose ~8%/yr while wider prices rose ~5%/yr

    SourceKeely and Lyons; CSO CPI

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  4. Four distinct price cycles between the mid-1940s and early 2010s (post-war rise, 1950s fall, early-1970s peak, early-1980s peak, 2007 peak)

    SourceKeely and Lyons

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  5. Long-run rent series built from newspaper archives back to the 1940s

    SourceKeely and Lyons rent series

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  6. Since the 1940s rents rose ~6.3%/yr vs 8.4%/yr for sale prices

    SourceKeely and Lyons

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  7. By late 2004 rents in central Dublin were roughly 15% lower than three years earlier; Meath fell more

    SourceDaft.ie Rental Report series

    Daft.ie report series

  8. Late 2025: Dublin city centre rents ~125% above post-crash low; Kerry almost 150%; Laois average market rent three times its 2011 level

    SourceDaft.ie Rental Report

    Daft.ie report series

  9. Longest previous run of rising real rents before the 2010s was six years (1995-2001); five years 1959-1964 close behind; no nationwide fall in real rents since 2012

    SourceKeely and Lyons rent series

    Richard Keely and Ronan C. Lyons, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 64(3)

  10. Rent Pressure Zones, capping annual rent increases, 'were introduced in 2017'

    SourcePlanning and Development (Housing) and Residential Tenancies Act 2016

  11. CHART 3: Dublin rental availability on the first day of each quarter 2006-2026 vs following quarter's rent change

    SourceDaft.ie (named in text)

    Daft.ie report series

  12. Some quarters saw 8,000 homes available in Dublin, others fewer than 1,000; rent changes ranged +4% to -6%

    SourceAs Chart 3

  13. Availability at the start of a quarter explains about one-third of subsequent rent movements

    SourceAuthor's own estimation on Daft.ie data

    Daft.ie report series

  14. The relationship holds across time, across Irish cities and regions, and for sales as well as rentals

    SourceAuthor's own analysis

  15. Dublin rental market is closest to balance at roughly 4,000 homes available; since 2021 typically ~1,300

    SourceAuthor calculation from Chart 3

  16. Balance requires around 1,000 Dublin rental listings per week; the 2020s have seen closer to 360

    SourceAuthor calculation, Daft.ie listings

    Daft.ie report series

  17. Assuming a typical tenancy of three years (150 weeks), Dublin's rental deficit is about 75,000 homes

    SourceAuthor calculation; tenancy length assumption

  18. Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford: balance ~350 listings/week vs actual ~73 (about 20%), implying a combined deficit of ~30,000 rental homes

    SourceAuthor calculation, Daft.ie

    Daft.ie report series

  19. Roughly 105,000 missing rental homes across the five cities - about one-third of the national deficit

    SourceAuthor calculation

  20. Rents in Offaly and Limerick city rose by a factor of three in a little over a decade

    SourceDaft.ie Rental Report

    Daft.ie report series

  21. A software engineer on EUR65,000 in Cork is 'well above the national average'

    SourceCSO Earnings and Labour Costs, EHA05 'Average Annual Earnings and Other Labour Costs'

    CSO EHA05