The banks and the government finances dominated public debate in 2009. In 2010, unemployment must take centre stage. This post presents estimates of young male unemployment around the country. In total about 55% of jobs for young men have disappeared in the last three years. In some parts of the country, up to two-thirds of young men are now signing on.
Of the various economic problems that face Ireland, unemployment has been the one to show least signs of turning the corner. This post reviews the latest Live Register data, and finds some crumbs of comfort in the marked slowdown in new job losses recently. It also analyses the gender and age breakdown of the Live Register in 2009, finding men under-25 have had it toughest, before offering some thoughts on growth sectors for the future.
As the decade draws to a close, this post looks back at the toughest year for Ireland’s economy since independence. It examines a dozen headline economic indicators, across the labour market, national income and prices. 2009 is compared (and constrasted) with the 2000-2007 boom period, before predictions for 2010 are made, based on current evidence. The most startling figure is how our average income per head compares with the EU15, going from 13% richer in 2007 to 8% poorer next year.
The Mayor of Limerick’s recent comments about deporting non-Irish unemployed have generated a lot of discussion. This post examines the numbers behind the claims and finds that, far from being a drain, those of working age from new EU member states are actually more than paying their way here!
This post asks whether Ireland is in a recession or a depression, using the metric of jobs lost. It compares losses in Ireland with those in the US now and in the US during the Great Depression, and finds that – with almost one sixth of its private sector gone – Ireland is in indeed a jobs depression. Come the new year, it will be time for our jobs crisis to take centre stage as its cost to society is easily as large as NAMA or the public finances.
The increase in the Live Register since the start of the year has been as large as the change in the previous 18 months. The first six months of 2009 were not just a repeat of what had gone before though. This post examines the numbers in detail and highlights two trends in particular: the growth of female unemployment and the growth in urban unemployment.
Simple economic models often beat complicated ones. Figures from the last 25 years show a very strong relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and the change in house prices. This gives hope for those anticipating house prices to level off in late 2010 or 2011 – assuming oversupply has been priced in by then.
Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households.
Irish households hit by both unemployment and negative equity
My recent post on negative equity led to some discussions, particularly on irisheconomy.ie, about the financial (i.e. NAMA) and labour market (i.e. dole) implications of negative equity. Here, I use Live Register figures to work out which counties have been affected most by unemployment since the start of the recession. A group of counties from Laois up to Cavan appear worst affected, although all counties have seen unemployment at least double.
Unemployment in Ireland by county, April 2009 compared to 2005/2006
As some of you may know, Nancy Pelosi has been scaring people with graphs, recently. By her metric, namely the absolute numbers of jobs lost, the current recession is more severe – and faster – than the last couple of regressions.
Naturally, something that high profile gained a lot of attention and ultimately modification. The one [...]
