This post examines global economic growth and investigates which parts of the world have been knocked out of their economic stride by the 2008/2009 recession. It finds that, just as there was a China effect in who has rebounded fastest this year, there has been a Russia effect – or certainly a post-Soviet effect – looking at those economies worst hit. Both findings highlight the importance of regional and continental economic links, even in a globalised world.
This post asks whether Ireland is in a recession or a depression, using the metric of jobs lost. It compares losses in Ireland with those in the US now and in the US during the Great Depression, and finds that – with almost one sixth of its private sector gone – Ireland is in indeed a jobs depression. Come the new year, it will be time for our jobs crisis to take centre stage as its cost to society is easily as large as NAMA or the public finances.
This post reviews some initial evidence from the 250 respondents so far to the poll on expected income changes in 2009. About 60% of respondents expect their income to fall this year compared to last. A breakdown by sector and by income level shows that across five broad sectors of the economy, lower paid workers are being spared the worst income cuts. In ICT, wages are expected to be static for the typical worker, regardless of income group.
With the global recession being just a coincidence for Ireland, whose exports have actually grown this year, what will the likely impact of any global recovery be? This post explores two sets of scenarios, a global dream/snooze/nightmare and a domestic equivalent. Given the nature of Ireland’s economy and its exporting sector, even a global dream recovery is likely to have little economic impact in Ireland. It’s the domestic consumer that will drive our next phase of growth.
Simple economic models often beat complicated ones. Figures from the last 25 years show a very strong relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and the change in house prices. This gives hope for those anticipating house prices to level off in late 2010 or 2011 – assuming oversupply has been priced in by then.
A year ago, I dabbled with word clouds to see what headlines about emerging markets might reveal. Doing the same exercise for every quarter since 2006 shows some interesting trends, particularly in 2007 and 2008, where the importance of topics such as risk, growth and crisis changes over time. Early evidence from 2009 suggests – optimistically? – that the overall news from emerging markets now is quite similar to 2006!
The slides and a video interview based on my presentation at the Future Focus event, chaired by James Bellini, in Edinburgh on June 11.
The last four years have been remarkable in the global property market – so remarkable that comparisons with nominal collapses in house prices of 95% (as happened in Georgian Dublin) are being seriously discussed. A quick examination of six different cities around the world since 2005 shows a whole range of experiences from collapse in Detroit to more recent falls in Hong Kong.
Property prices in six cities around the world, Jan 2005-Jan 2009
This post uses Census and CSO data to estimate how many mortgage-holders in each county are faced with ‘unexpected unemployment’. Nationwide, almost 7% of mortgage holders are dealing with unemployment, a figure that could rise to 10% if the Live Register hits 500,000. Louth in particular and Leinster more generally are the worst affected areas.
Unemployment among mortgage-holders in Ireland by county
In this post, I take a look at the maths behind buying or renting. Amazingly, even in heady market of 2006, it was cheaper to buy than rent. With rates back down at very low rates, and generous mortgage interest relief, it is once again cheaper to buy than rent – and looks set to stay that way, unless there are significant changes to the tax system.
Annual savings for owning rather than renting, 2006-2009
