Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households.
Irish households hit by both unemployment and negative equity
This post uses Census and CSO data to estimate how many mortgage-holders in each county are faced with ‘unexpected unemployment’. Nationwide, almost 7% of mortgage holders are dealing with unemployment, a figure that could rise to 10% if the Live Register hits 500,000. Louth in particular and Leinster more generally are the worst affected areas.
Unemployment among mortgage-holders in Ireland by county
My recent post on negative equity led to some discussions, particularly on irisheconomy.ie, about the financial (i.e. NAMA) and labour market (i.e. dole) implications of negative equity. Here, I use Live Register figures to work out which counties have been affected most by unemployment since the start of the recession. A group of counties from Laois up to Cavan appear worst affected, although all counties have seen unemployment at least double.
Unemployment in Ireland by county, April 2009 compared to 2005/2006
An updated heat-map of changes Ireland’s property prices, to reflect the latest Daft Report (2008 Q4).
