Ronan Lyons | Personal Website
Ronan Lyons | Personal Website

long term economic value

NAMA figures point to 57% fall in property values: the good, bad and neutral news from Tranche 2

This post reviews the (scant) latest information from NAMA’s second tranche. It discusses the problems caused by Anglo’s omission from the figures NAMA gives, before estimating the likely true haircut for the first two tranches. It then calculates the total fall in property values implied by the ever-rising haircuts, before discussing some good news, bad news and neutral news from all this for the taxpayer. Read more

EU scuppers “long-term economic value” as NAMA’s first tranche goes through

This post looks at the figures behind the first tranche of NAMA’s loans and whether they suggest that NAMA is driving a hard bargain for the taxpayer. It finds that the EU’s guidelines on discounting mean long-term economic value is ultimately lower than current value not higher. It also outlines how the first tranche of loans may be entirely unrepresentative of future tranches. Read more

Do the NAMA figures add up? A broader and more realistic assessment of long-term economic value

This post looks at the numbers behind NAMA in more detail, producing estimates of how much is in different segments of Irish and international property markets. It also critiques the calculation of long-term economic value, which turns out to be based on about 5% of the loan book, and presents revised estimates based on a broader sets of loans and more realistic assumptions. Read more