Ronan Lyons | Personal Website
Ronan Lyons | Personal Website

ireland

Back to basics: can Europe trade its way out of trouble?

This post reviews the most recent IMF World Economic Outlook, the benchmark outlook on the global economy. A three-tier world economy is emerging, with China and India leading the way, and advanced economies bringing up the rear. For countries with high debt and shrinking and ageing populations, export growth is the key. Looking at the last few and next few years in Europe, a gap has emerged between leading exporters, such as Germany & Ireland, and straggling exporters, predominantly in the Mediterranean. Read more

Are lower paid workers being spared the worst income cuts?

This post reviews some initial evidence from the 250 respondents so far to the poll on expected income changes in 2009. About 60% of respondents expect their income to fall this year compared to last. A breakdown by sector and by income level shows that across five broad sectors of the economy, lower paid workers are being spared the worst income cuts. In ICT, wages are expected to be static for the typical worker, regardless of income group. Read more

Are incomes rising or falling? Have your say!

This post reviews Ireland’s relatively sparse wage data for signs of a real devaluation (or not), before discussing some of the problems in waiting for official data. To light a candle, rather than curse the darkness, the post includes a short poll for readers to complete, on employment and earnings. A successful take-up of the poll would be a real contribution to the debate on earnings in Ireland. Read more

Is government expenditure in Europe an inferior good? The Slovakia-Ireland paradox

To an economist, “inferior goods” are those we switch away from as we become richer. Between 2000 and 2008, Europeans became 14% richer, while the typical European government increased its share in the economy from 44.7% to 45.4%. The two fastest growing economies, however, the Slovak Republic and Ireland, had exactly opposite experiences, with the Slovak government now the smallest in Europe. It turns out that these countries aside, poorer countries generally saw their governments grow, while wealthier European states saw their governments shrink. Read more

How many Irish homes are in negative equity?

Ireland’s property market is currently in rewind. Homes now are at March 2005 values – or July 2004, if asking prices are 10% above closing prices. Figures from daft.ie, the Census and the Dept of the Environment allow an estimate of both the number of homes now worth less than when they were bought – about 725,000, or 40% of homes – and how many of those are in negative equity -about 340,000, or 20% of homes. Read more