Back to basics: can Europe trade its way out of trouble?

This post reviews the most recent IMF World Economic Outlook, the benchmark outlook on the global economy. A three-tier world economy is emerging, with China and India leading the way, and advanced economies bringing up the rear. For countries with high debt and shrinking and ageing populations, export growth is the key. Looking at the last few and next few years in Europe, a gap has emerged between leading exporters, such as Germany & Ireland, and straggling exporters, predominantly in the Mediterranean.

A brand new scare graph – Japan’s collapsing exports

I have just discovered a set of global trade statistics updated monthly by the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). (Incidentally, this is not the first time I’ve come across excellent work by the CPB – their work on administrative burdens imposed by regulation is essentially the international pioneer on the topic and has [...]

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