This post reviews the findings in the latest Daft.ie House Price Report, for Q2 2010, finding news for both optimists and pessimists in average prices and the level of transactions. The report’s commentary is by Jim Power, who discusses the need for a property tax. The remainder of the post reviews the arguments in favour of a property tax in Ireland and recommends the introduction of a land value tax.
This post continues the regional review of house prices with an analysis of four-bedroom homes in the different suburbs of Cork. It finds that Cork bucks the trend seen generally in the country and in Dublin and Galway cities that more expensive areas have fallen hardest. The largest falls in Cork have been in Glanmire. It then explores some of the likely explanations for these different regional trends.
Simple economic models often beat complicated ones. Figures from the last 25 years show a very strong relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and the change in house prices. This gives hope for those anticipating house prices to level off in late 2010 or 2011 – assuming oversupply has been priced in by then.
Yields are a vital indicator of the health of a property market. Dublin yields on residential property have fallen steadily from 7% in the late 1990s to about 3.5% in 2008. Realistically, they will need to settle at some level closer to 5.25%. With rents looking like falling 33% from peak values, this suggests a fall in house prices from peak values of 60%.
