“Won’t somebody please think of the children?” – Banks, debt and Ireland in the 2050s
It’s become something of a cliché in Irish public discourse to worry out loud about the banking debt being left to our children and grandchildren. Should we worry about this, though? This post outlines the most likely scenario for just much of a burden Ireland’s banking debts are likely to be for our grandchildren, focusing in particular on the role of economic growth and inflation. Read more
2009 in review and 2010 in preview
As the decade draws to a close, this post looks back at the toughest year for Ireland’s economy since independence. It examines a dozen headline economic indicators, across the labour market, national income and prices. 2009 is compared (and constrasted) with the 2000-2007 boom period, before predictions for 2010 are made, based on current evidence. The most startling figure is how our average income per head compares with the EU15, going from 13% richer in 2007 to 8% poorer next year. Read more
Which countries have been displaced most by the global recession? The Russia effect
This post examines global economic growth and investigates which parts of the world have been knocked out of their economic stride by the 2008/2009 recession. It finds that, just as there was a China effect in who has rebounded fastest this year, there has been a Russia effect – or certainly a post-Soviet effect – looking at those economies worst hit. Both findings highlight the importance of regional and continental economic links, even in a globalised world. Read more
Is government expenditure in Europe an inferior good? The Slovakia-Ireland paradox
To an economist, “inferior goods” are those we switch away from as we become richer. Between 2000 and 2008, Europeans became 14% richer, while the typical European government increased its share in the economy from 44.7% to 45.4%. The two fastest growing economies, however, the Slovak Republic and Ireland, had exactly opposite experiences, with the Slovak government now the smallest in Europe. It turns out that these countries aside, poorer countries generally saw their governments grow, while wealthier European states saw their governments shrink. Read more
Are more open countries being hit harder in the recession?
A review of the IMF’s April 2009 World Economic Outlook, and an analysis of the fastest growing – and contracting – economies of 2009. The 2009 economic growth in Africa and Asia is welcome, and growth (albeit weaker) in China and India indicates the beginnings of self-sustaining domestic demand in those economies. Read more