Yields are a vital indicator of the health of a property market. Dublin yields on residential property have fallen steadily from 7% in the late 1990s to about 3.5% in 2008. Realistically, they will need to settle at some level closer to 5.25%. With rents looking like falling 33% from peak values, this suggests a fall in house prices from peak values of 60%.
Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households.
Irish households hit by both unemployment and negative equity
The last four years have been remarkable in the global property market – so remarkable that comparisons with nominal collapses in house prices of 95% (as happened in Georgian Dublin) are being seriously discussed. A quick examination of six different cities around the world since 2005 shows a whole range of experiences from collapse in Detroit to more recent falls in Hong Kong.
Property prices in six cities around the world, Jan 2005-Jan 2009
A review of the latest trends in Ireland’s residential lettings market, from the Q1 2009 Daft.ie Rental Report, including a map of the changes in rents by county.
Ireland’s property market is currently in rewind. Homes now are at March 2005 values – or July 2004, if asking prices are 10% above closing prices. Figures from daft.ie, the Census and the Dept of the Environment allow an estimate of both the number of homes now worth less than when they were bought – about 725,000, or 40% of homes – and how many of those are in negative equity -about 340,000, or 20% of homes.
This week’s daft.ie report revealed some intriguing findings in relation to the current state and trajectory of Ireland’s property market. As was discussed yesterday, for example, while east peaked earlier than west, north has fallen further than south since the peak. One of the conclusions of both these findings is that Dublin and its commuter [...]
On Monday the latest daft.ie report came out, showing that asking prices had fallen just over 4% in the first three months of the year. Yesterday, I changed focus on the blog a little, as it was Budget day, and tried instead to put some numbers on what a potential property tax could raise.
Today, I [...]
Ireland’s property slump marked it second birthday today, with the news from the latest daft.ie report that asking prices for residential property fell 4.2% in the first three months of 2009. This latest drop in prices marks the eight consecutive quarter that prices have fallen.
As the official press release notes, the national average asking price [...]
Another month, another visualization method!
This time it’s Twitter StreamGraph, which tries to show a river of topics related to a keyword over time. It’s early days for this particular method, I think – having a range of options, such as number of tweets, or a particular time period, etc., would be very handy, but still [...]
How did Roscommon’s property market fare in 2008, compared to Limerick’s? Why?
For some thoughts on the above, and on South County Dublin, Cork City and Kilkenny, as a representative smattering of the regional tidbits in the latest Daft Report, you can catch a five minute or so interview on January 15’s Ireland AM on here, [...]
