Construction, not rent control, the solution to the housing crisis
Can Ireland improve its competitiveness while raising taxes?
Making Ireland a more attractive place for FDI, via making it attractive for workers to come and live here is difficult when the environment is one of higher and higher taxes. This post examines Ireland’s changing competitiveness. It first looks at how a family’s mortgage repayment will change between 2005 and 2015. It also examines how after-tax, after-rent income in Ireland compares internationally, finding that significant tax increases are compatible with international competitiveness when offset by falling costs of accommodation. Read more
Yields on residential property point to scale of the challenge
Yields are a vital indicator of the health of a property market. Dublin yields on residential property have fallen steadily from 7% in the late 1990s to about 3.5% in 2008. Realistically, they will need to settle at some level closer to 5.25%. With rents looking like falling 33% from peak values, this suggests a fall in house prices from peak values of 60%. Read more
Up to 60,000 households threatened by negative equity and unemployment
Currently, up to one in four households with a mortgage is faced with negative equity. At the same time, one in seven is coping with unemployment. It is likely, then, that there are in the region of 20,000 homes faced with both negative equity and unemployment. If the Live Register reaches 500,000 and house prices fall another 25% in the next year, this figure could treble to 3.5% of all households. Read more
Five years, six property markets, mixed fortunes
The last four years have been remarkable in the global property market – so remarkable that comparisons with nominal collapses in house prices of 95% (as happened in Georgian Dublin) are being seriously discussed. A quick examination of six different cities around the world since 2005 shows a whole range of experiences from collapse in Detroit to more recent falls in Hong Kong. Read more
How much are rents falling around the country?
A review of the latest trends in Ireland’s residential lettings market, from the Q1 2009 Daft.ie Rental Report, including a map of the changes in rents by county. Read more
How many Irish homes are in negative equity?
Ireland’s property market is currently in rewind. Homes now are at March 2005 values – or July 2004, if asking prices are 10% above closing prices. Figures from daft.ie, the Census and the Dept of the Environment allow an estimate of both the number of homes now worth less than when they were bought – about 725,000, or 40% of homes – and how many of those are in negative equity -about 340,000, or 20% of homes. Read more