“Won’t somebody please think of the children?” – Banks, debt and Ireland in the 2050s

It’s become something of a cliché in Irish public discourse to worry out loud about the banking debt being left to our children and grandchildren. Should we worry about this, though? This post outlines the most likely scenario for just much of a burden Ireland’s banking debts are likely to be for our grandchildren, focusing in particular on the role of economic growth and inflation. Read more

May 3, 2011

Back to basics: can Europe trade its way out of trouble?

This post reviews the most recent IMF World Economic Outlook, the benchmark outlook on the global economy. A three-tier world economy is emerging, with China and India leading the way, and advanced economies bringing up the rear. For countries with high debt and shrinking and ageing populations, export growth is the key. Looking at the last few and next few years in Europe, a gap has emerged between leading exporters, such as Germany & Ireland, and straggling exporters, predominantly in the Mediterranean. Read more