With talk of a change in the global economic pecking order, particularly around the new IMF chief, this post takes a long look at the world economy. It contrasts the current shares of world output with those of five hundred and two thousand years ago. The lessons of history – and the weight of maths – hold valuable lessons for Europe, as it seeks to find a new role in the world economy. Read more
This post reviews the latest IMF data on global economic growth to 2015 and puts it in the context of what has happened since 1980. In real terms, the global economy will reach $100 trillion by 2015, more than three times its 1980 level. What might surprise Westerners, however, is that the pace of economic growth will actually be faster in the period 2008-2015 than the 1980s, 1990s or pre-Recession 2000s. This is because while growth is slowing in the West, which now contributes to the list of world’s slowest growing economies like never before, it’s accelerating across Asia and Africa. Read more
This post explores the now freely available World Development Indicators, from the World Bank. In particular, it looks at urbanisation and the role for cities in development and creating wealth and well-being. Over the past 50 years, China in particular has urbanised fast. Over the next 50, India may be the centre of city growth. This presents development challenges but on balance is a huge opportunity. Read more
The IMF has published its latest growth forecasts. This post gives an overview of the headline stats and analyses the revisions to the 2009 figures. It finds that while some countries in most regions of the world, with the possible exception of the Americas, have seen their growth prospects this year significantly improve, the largest concentration is around China. This suggests a regional dimension to the global economy that is likely to prove important in the medium ter. Read more
China’s growth over the last generation – and the current prolonged slowdown in growth in the OECD – have meant a greater research interest in China and its global economic impact. This post reviews research on whether China has de-industrialized other developing countries. The research suggests it has but that this effect has been swamped by other more important effects. The post concludes by questioning the traditional importance attached to manufacturing. Read more
A review of the IMF’s April 2009 World Economic Outlook, and an analysis of the fastest growing – and contracting – economies of 2009. The 2009 economic growth in Africa and Asia is welcome, and growth (albeit weaker) in China and India indicates the beginnings of self-sustaining domestic demand in those economies. Read more
As everyone knows, economists and sociologists are the faculty equivalent of cats and dogs. As an economist, I’m more or less brought up to think that sociologists are a bit funny, really, and their models and ways of explaining the world around them good cannon fodder.
Imagine my surprise, then, when I opened this book recently – it having been part of a bulk Amazon order of titles that sounded more or less up my street – and read up on the author… a sociologist! Not only that, the book was twenty years old! Many people will stop now having learnt what I thought would be the only lesson to be learnt from this entire episode: always find out a little bit more about a book before you part money for it. In fact, I think there’s an old English saying along those lines… don’t cover a book with a judge, or something similar.
Anyway, where was I? Oh yes, the book. I decided to do as a Baz would want me to and do one thing that particular day that scared me. Besides, not knowing an awful lot about non-European economic history during the period A.D. 1250-1350 year dot-2008, surely I’d learn something, right?
Sure enough, once I got past the fact that I’d picked out a textbook for a sociology course from the 1980s, I never looked back. The writing is structured, with chapters organised around each on of the 9 spheres of economic activity identified. The paucity of non-European data – which has indeed blinkered somewhat economic historians and cliometricians writing recently – is tackled head-on, rather than ignored. In the style of a true economic historian, she goes on the hunt for proxies to inform the scale and scope of international trade between, for example, the Indian east coast and the South-East straits.
There are a few annoying habits throughout the book – a bit of name-dropping or over-indulgence in highly theoretical or fringe debates, particularly in the notes – but this is an excellent introduction to a fascinating period in world history. Particular points of interest include:
So, while cats and dogs may still not be on best terms, a few more books like this will put paid to Disney’s plans to release ‘Economists and Sociologists’!