This post outlines a scenario for Ireland’s government finances out to 2015. Even with aggressive productivity targets for areas of current expenditure, the deficit is likely to be above 4% of GDP by 2015, while the national debt will again be larger than national income and take up one-fifth of all tax revenues. Grounds for optimism – and pessimism – and alternative scenarios are also explored. Read more
This post scores Budget 2010 against three criteria: closing the budget deficit, preserving public services and managing expectations. While scoring very well on the first two, principally because the nettle of public sector pay was grasped, expectations about taxes and future Budgets were not properly managed, which may cause trouble down the line. Read more
This post outlines some key considerations in Ireland’s Budget 2010, including the scale of the challenge the government faces, the imperative to cut spending, the growing role of national debt, capital expenditure and over-reliance on income taxes. It also makes some recommendations for measures in relation to tax credits, property tax and VAT. Read more
With the Budget looming, a range of opinions are being aired about the relative importance of tax increases versus spending cuts. This post attempts to put Ireland’s public expenditure in perspective, by comparing the size of our Government, relative to the economy, with that of our European neighbours. It finds that Ireland’s government will, in all likelihood, be the largest in Europe in 2009. Read more