This post launches a rent-or-buy calculator that allows people to put in their own details, including assumptions about interest rates and growth in house prices and rents over the coming decades, and compares their wealth at the end of the period if they rented or bought. It also discusses some of the assumptions underpinning the calculator and answers to FAQs about it. Read more
This post reviews the latest Daft Report, released this morning, which finds that asking prices are one third below their peak on average. Of encouragement to all parties is the high levels of transactions, with one in three properties posted in January either sold or sale agreed already. It also discusses Brian Lucey’s commentary, which outlines implications for NAMA. Read more
The banks and the government finances dominated public debate in 2009. In 2010, unemployment must take centre stage. This post presents estimates of young male unemployment around the country. In total about 55% of jobs for young men have disappeared in the last three years. In some parts of the country, up to two-thirds of young men are now signing on. Read more
Of the various economic problems that face Ireland, unemployment has been the one to show least signs of turning the corner. This post reviews the latest Live Register data, and finds some crumbs of comfort in the marked slowdown in new job losses recently. It also analyses the gender and age breakdown of the Live Register in 2009, finding men under-25 have had it toughest, before offering some thoughts on growth sectors for the future. Read more
The volume of transactions may be a good indicator of how overheated a property market is. Figures on completions, housing stock and mortgage approvals allow an estimate of the number of transactions by county. The figures for 2005-2008 show a set of counties – including Laois and a mid-west corridor – where almost 30% of properties were traded in that period. Sure enough, these figures correlate very highly with the percentage of properties currently for sale in each county. Read more
This post uses Census and CSO data to estimate how many mortgage-holders in each county are faced with ‘unexpected unemployment’. Nationwide, almost 7% of mortgage holders are dealing with unemployment, a figure that could rise to 10% if the Live Register hits 500,000. Louth in particular and Leinster more generally are the worst affected areas. Read more
The last four years have been remarkable in the global property market – so remarkable that comparisons with nominal collapses in house prices of 95% (as happened in Georgian Dublin) are being seriously discussed. A quick examination of six different cities around the world since 2005 shows a whole range of experiences from collapse in Detroit to more recent falls in Hong Kong. Read more