This post extends a February comparison of private sector job losses in recent US recessions to include the latest data, finding that the last six months have seen no significant recovery in employment numbers. It then compares the current recession to the Great Depression. Read more
Global rankings of competitiveness are widely used, not so much by economists as by policymakers and those trying to attract foreign investment. This post compares and contrasts the WEF and World Bank measures of business competitiveness. The World Bank’s Doing Business rankings lend themselves very readily to policymakers taking action and differ for many countries quite substantially from the WEF rankings. Read more
This post celebrates Arthur’s Day and 250 years of Guinness with an economic perspective on our national drink, including a look at wages measured in Guinness terms and the fate of Guinness on the stock markets from its flotation in the 1880s to the end of the Roaring Twenties… and of course the magic dates when Guinness was worth 17.59 (million)! Read more
A CEPR paper published this month highlights a gap between what the US believes about the importance of small business and the actual importance of small business in its economy, compared to other economies. This post reviews some of the evidence and also draws out some findings for other countries. Read more
China’s growth over the last generation – and the current prolonged slowdown in growth in the OECD – have meant a greater research interest in China and its global economic impact. This post reviews research on whether China has de-industrialized other developing countries. The research suggests it has but that this effect has been swamped by other more important effects. The post concludes by questioning the traditional importance attached to manufacturing. Read more
To an economist, “inferior goods” are those we switch away from as we become richer. Between 2000 and 2008, Europeans became 14% richer, while the typical European government increased its share in the economy from 44.7% to 45.4%. The two fastest growing economies, however, the Slovak Republic and Ireland, had exactly opposite experiences, with the Slovak government now the smallest in Europe. It turns out that these countries aside, poorer countries generally saw their governments grow, while wealthier European states saw their governments shrink. Read more
Long-run data on inequality within and across countries from the 1820s allow a Rawlsian look at the world: how well off are the poorest in society? This post calculates GDP per capita of the poorest 10% of a society for a selection of world regions. This perspective makes Africa’s plight even more baffling, given that its poorest citizens were better off than those of any other developing region up to 1914. Its poorest citizens now are no better off than its poorest citizens then. Read more
A newly available dataset on education levels around the world from 1870 to 2010 has allowed economists to test fundamental hypotheses about economic development. This has led to fascinating insights about what causes inequality, population growth and democracy: in each case, education has played a key role. This is an optimistic message as education – unlike for example geography – can be influenced by policy choices. Read more
A year ago, I dabbled with word clouds to see what headlines about emerging markets might reveal. Doing the same exercise for every quarter since 2006 shows some interesting trends, particularly in 2007 and 2008, where the importance of topics such as risk, growth and crisis changes over time. Early evidence from 2009 suggests – optimistically? – that the overall news from emerging markets now is quite similar to 2006! Read more
Following last weekend’s European elections, commentators have highlighted a general move to the right and the usual protest vote. An examination of country-level results reveals that the move to the right may be driven more by punishment of governing parties for economic failures than any idealogical shift. Read more