This post explores the now freely available World Development Indicators, from the World Bank. In particular, it looks at urbanisation and the role for cities in development and creating wealth and well-being. Over the past 50 years, China in particular has urbanised fast. Over the next 50, India may be the centre of city growth. This presents development challenges but on balance is a huge opportunity.
Inflation in the eurozone has jumped up in recent months from -0.5% to +1.0%. This post examines the likely pressures on eurozone inflation in 2010, by looking at the prices of commodities. Using World Bank data on commodity prices, it finds rapid inflation in commodities since late 2009. With the current over-reliance of macroeconomic policy on interest rates, this poses a threat to eurozone growth.
With so much of the focus of the media and markets on Greece and its PIGS neighbours in the eurozone, one could easily forget that the UK will have the largest deficit in the EU this year and next. This post suggests that being outside the eurozone is a two-way street for the UK. The lack of restraint on its fiscal policy is already showing, with a simple index of government finance statistics placing the UK finances as the weakest of 24 developed countries.
This post reviews the ILO’s Global Wage Report and in particular its expanding dataset on internal inequality between top and bottom earners. While inequality has fallen in many countries, including Ireland, there is no strong evidence of a global trend in that direction. The figures contain an important reminder: even the poorest in wealthy countries live in conditions that average earners in most other countries would happily take.
This post reviews the latest Paying Taxes report by the World Bank. It highlights a huge challenge for the EU, which aims to become the most competitive economy in the world, as very few of its member states have a globally competitive regulatory system. An analysis of the report’s figures shows the EU has attempted to build its success on efficient corporate tax systems, while labour taxes remain hugely inefficient.
This post examines global economic growth and investigates which parts of the world have been knocked out of their economic stride by the 2008/2009 recession. It finds that, just as there was a China effect in who has rebounded fastest this year, there has been a Russia effect – or certainly a post-Soviet effect – looking at those economies worst hit. Both findings highlight the importance of regional and continental economic links, even in a globalised world.
The IMF has published its latest growth forecasts. This post gives an overview of the headline stats and analyses the revisions to the 2009 figures. It finds that while some countries in most regions of the world, with the possible exception of the Americas, have seen their growth prospects this year significantly improve, the largest concentration is around China. This suggests a regional dimension to the global economy that is likely to prove important in the medium ter.
This post extends a February comparison of private sector job losses in recent US recessions to include the latest data, finding that the last six months have seen no significant recovery in employment numbers. It then compares the current recession to the Great Depression.
Global rankings of competitiveness are widely used, not so much by economists as by policymakers and those trying to attract foreign investment. This post compares and contrasts the WEF and World Bank measures of business competitiveness. The World Bank’s Doing Business rankings lend themselves very readily to policymakers taking action and differ for many countries quite substantially from the WEF rankings.
This post celebrates Arthur’s Day and 250 years of Guinness with an economic perspective on our national drink, including a look at wages measured in Guinness terms and the fate of Guinness on the stock markets from its flotation in the 1880s to the end of the Roaring Twenties… and of course the magic dates when Guinness was worth 17.59 (million)!
