Interesting, but all this is happening before the onerous, upcoming burdens of austerity hit hard at the Irish people. Will not unemployment rise, incomes shrink, and taxes rise?
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Ronan Lyons, John Smyth. John Smyth said: RT @ronanlyons Scarcity drives year-on-year rents up for the first time since 2007 in Ireland http://bit.ly/dPgHqa […]
Thanks for the graphs. They clearly show that post-boom, we have inherited a skewed distribution of housing supply with far too few dwellings for rent or sale in Dublin. This bodes well for homeowners in the capital, as this artificial scarcity (a product of the perverse planning controls that stymied urban expansion of 3/4 bed housebuilding in Dublin suburbs and high-rise apartment building in the city centre) will backstop the fall in house prices for Dubliners. However, it also suggests the oversupply of compact housing in rural towns and villages will lead to further declines in rents and prices in the provinces.
You have exposed the lie that there were too many homes built in the boom, as supply is clearly not too out of kilter with demographic demand. The boom significantly improved Ireland’s housing stock but mostly in undesirable locations. Thanks to the planners, the housing boom produced plenty of modern (cramped) homes in rural estates in opposition to the demographic demand for spacious family homes and city-centre apartments in Dublin.
Laura
,
Ronan, you might want to compare vacancy rates and oversupply with CSO’s latest unemployment stats – there seems to be a coorelation between areas with stubbornly high and growing unemployment and high levels of housing oversupply. There may also be structural relationships between areas of high oversupply and poor employment and poor infrastructure which would make it both difficult to get to work from the area. Unfortunately there is nothing available to measure this (perhaps you could base a loose study on size of town compared to proximity to M or N/1 roads?)
You are correct on 20% being the maximum (apparent) level of rent supplement acceptance in the adverts, but if you further screen ads by whether or not they fall beneath the threshold, available property for RA tenants falls to around 5%.
Tommy
,
“You have exposed the lie that there were too many homes built in the boom”
@ Steve – Best Laugh I have had in a long time – Wonder when NAMA will be releasing their stock on to the market. Waiting for Long term economic value in a country heading for bankruptcy may not be the sharpest policy
Tommy, as Laura also indicates there is a key difference between oversupply in housing nationally and excess supply of housing locally. Ask yourself why house prices continued to rise continually for a dozen years despite an exploding supply of new housing.
I suggest this may have something to do with the distortion of supply according to the law of planners not the law of supply and demand.
Take a look at Dun Laoghaire Rathdown as a super example. During the course of Ireland’s housing boom, the number of dwellings in one of Dublin’s most desirable commuter suburbs dwindled.
Go figure.
Declan
,
Hi Ronan
You have complete ignored the simple fact the Dublin is full of empty apartments’ Clancy quay for example 400 finished units sitting empty for 3 years .It’s great that the owners can turn their noses of at 400k per month .Within ten minutes walk of there you could easily find a thousand units empty.
It is strange the commentators also fail to mention that 60% of Irelands houses have no mortgage and the other 40 % was lent 148 Billion euro.
This has led to a two tier economy, the debt free are able to over pay for goods driving up prices and reducing competitiveness.
It is quite clear when you see how much money is on deposit in Irish Banks.
[…] is rental property in Dublin is more scarce – relatively speaking – than one might imagine. Writing on his blog, he said: “The total number of properties sitting on the rental market increased from less than […]
John Mack ,
Interesting, but all this is happening before the onerous, upcoming burdens of austerity hit hard at the Irish people. Will not unemployment rise, incomes shrink, and taxes rise?
Tweets that mention Scarcity drives year-on-year rents up for the first time since 2007 | Ronan Lyons -- Topsy.com ,
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Ronan Lyons, John Smyth. John Smyth said: RT @ronanlyons Scarcity drives year-on-year rents up for the first time since 2007 in Ireland http://bit.ly/dPgHqa […]
Steve Daley ,
@Ronan
Thanks for the graphs. They clearly show that post-boom, we have inherited a skewed distribution of housing supply with far too few dwellings for rent or sale in Dublin. This bodes well for homeowners in the capital, as this artificial scarcity (a product of the perverse planning controls that stymied urban expansion of 3/4 bed housebuilding in Dublin suburbs and high-rise apartment building in the city centre) will backstop the fall in house prices for Dubliners. However, it also suggests the oversupply of compact housing in rural towns and villages will lead to further declines in rents and prices in the provinces.
You have exposed the lie that there were too many homes built in the boom, as supply is clearly not too out of kilter with demographic demand. The boom significantly improved Ireland’s housing stock but mostly in undesirable locations. Thanks to the planners, the housing boom produced plenty of modern (cramped) homes in rural estates in opposition to the demographic demand for spacious family homes and city-centre apartments in Dublin.
Laura ,
Ronan, you might want to compare vacancy rates and oversupply with CSO’s latest unemployment stats – there seems to be a coorelation between areas with stubbornly high and growing unemployment and high levels of housing oversupply. There may also be structural relationships between areas of high oversupply and poor employment and poor infrastructure which would make it both difficult to get to work from the area. Unfortunately there is nothing available to measure this (perhaps you could base a loose study on size of town compared to proximity to M or N/1 roads?)
You are correct on 20% being the maximum (apparent) level of rent supplement acceptance in the adverts, but if you further screen ads by whether or not they fall beneath the threshold, available property for RA tenants falls to around 5%.
Tommy ,
“You have exposed the lie that there were too many homes built in the boom”
@ Steve – Best Laugh I have had in a long time – Wonder when NAMA will be releasing their stock on to the market. Waiting for Long term economic value in a country heading for bankruptcy may not be the sharpest policy
Steve Daley ,
Tommy, as Laura also indicates there is a key difference between oversupply in housing nationally and excess supply of housing locally. Ask yourself why house prices continued to rise continually for a dozen years despite an exploding supply of new housing.
I suggest this may have something to do with the distortion of supply according to the law of planners not the law of supply and demand.
Take a look at Dun Laoghaire Rathdown as a super example. During the course of Ireland’s housing boom, the number of dwellings in one of Dublin’s most desirable commuter suburbs dwindled.
Go figure.
Declan ,
Hi Ronan
You have complete ignored the simple fact the Dublin is full of empty apartments’ Clancy quay for example 400 finished units sitting empty for 3 years .It’s great that the owners can turn their noses of at 400k per month .Within ten minutes walk of there you could easily find a thousand units empty.
It is strange the commentators also fail to mention that 60% of Irelands houses have no mortgage and the other 40 % was lent 148 Billion euro.
This has led to a two tier economy, the debt free are able to over pay for goods driving up prices and reducing competitiveness.
It is quite clear when you see how much money is on deposit in Irish Banks.
Jason Walsh | Why are rents rising despite an oversupply of property? ,
[…] is rental property in Dublin is more scarce – relatively speaking – than one might imagine. Writing on his blog, he said: “The total number of properties sitting on the rental market increased from less than […]