Perhaps I’m not thinking it through – but I’m not 100% clear on the connetion between the amount of property for sale and the question implicit in the anecdote “when’s the best time to buy?”
In my case, I want to buy a 3/4 bed semi in Dublin. I can see now that the amount of those on the market has fallen by about 15% in the past year, and that only about 1% of the total number are for sale.
If I assume that normally there are significantly more of that type of house for sale, then this is a bad time to buy. Is that assumption/logic right?
Hi Eoin,
Thanks for the comment. I’ll explain myself a little better!
The first chart shows, as you say, the fall in the total amount of a particular type of property sitting on the market. Your desired type has indeed fallen by about 15% since late 2008.
The second chart is probably more open to interpretation but my general reading is the apartment market in Rest-of-Country for example is likely to have a much longer period of adjustment than the house market in Dublin. I appreciate the implication in your comment, though, that like in the UK, there may be restricted supply of Dublin houses which could come on to the market if they see prices levelling off.
Given that there is unlikely to be any rush either way on the property market, and given that the UK is going through this restriction of supply phenomenon, perhaps keep your eye on their market as a testbed for those parts of the Irish market that do not seem to have significant oversupply from the boom years. Here’s yesterday’s evidence from the UK: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article7015820.ece
One other thing to bear in mind if thinking about jumping on the ladder at the moment are the known unknowns. What I mean by that is future events that we know about but we don’t quite know their exact nature, i.e. interest rates.
The past week has been a turbulent one for Europe with question marks over Greece, Portugal, Spain, and less so now Ireland. This will make it harder for the ECB in the near-term to increase rates. But it will happen eventually and now (or soon) might be a good time to lock in to a low fixed rate (in the absense of trackers). And by extension, what with NAMA and all, it looks like banks will attempt to progressively increse their standard variable rates (as PTSB have done) to increase margin. So timing you entry and deciding between variable and fixed become a very important move.
Jonathan
,
Hi All,
I have a dilemma at the moment. I am just about to purchase a property and I was going to choose a 2.6 % variable rate. But considering the inevitable rises late this year or early next, I am considering a 5yr (approx 4 %) or 10 yr fixed (4.65 %) rate. Any comments please?
Eoin ,
Perhaps I’m not thinking it through – but I’m not 100% clear on the connetion between the amount of property for sale and the question implicit in the anecdote “when’s the best time to buy?”
In my case, I want to buy a 3/4 bed semi in Dublin. I can see now that the amount of those on the market has fallen by about 15% in the past year, and that only about 1% of the total number are for sale.
If I assume that normally there are significantly more of that type of house for sale, then this is a bad time to buy. Is that assumption/logic right?
Ronan Lyons ,
Hi Eoin,
Thanks for the comment. I’ll explain myself a little better!
The first chart shows, as you say, the fall in the total amount of a particular type of property sitting on the market. Your desired type has indeed fallen by about 15% since late 2008.
The second chart is probably more open to interpretation but my general reading is the apartment market in Rest-of-Country for example is likely to have a much longer period of adjustment than the house market in Dublin. I appreciate the implication in your comment, though, that like in the UK, there may be restricted supply of Dublin houses which could come on to the market if they see prices levelling off.
Given that there is unlikely to be any rush either way on the property market, and given that the UK is going through this restriction of supply phenomenon, perhaps keep your eye on their market as a testbed for those parts of the Irish market that do not seem to have significant oversupply from the boom years. Here’s yesterday’s evidence from the UK:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article7015820.ece
Senan ,
One other thing to bear in mind if thinking about jumping on the ladder at the moment are the known unknowns. What I mean by that is future events that we know about but we don’t quite know their exact nature, i.e. interest rates.
The past week has been a turbulent one for Europe with question marks over Greece, Portugal, Spain, and less so now Ireland. This will make it harder for the ECB in the near-term to increase rates. But it will happen eventually and now (or soon) might be a good time to lock in to a low fixed rate (in the absense of trackers). And by extension, what with NAMA and all, it looks like banks will attempt to progressively increse their standard variable rates (as PTSB have done) to increase margin. So timing you entry and deciding between variable and fixed become a very important move.
Jonathan ,
Hi All,
I have a dilemma at the moment. I am just about to purchase a property and I was going to choose a 2.6 % variable rate. But considering the inevitable rises late this year or early next, I am considering a 5yr (approx 4 %) or 10 yr fixed (4.65 %) rate. Any comments please?