Comments on: 2009 in review and 2010 in preview

By: Cathal

Cathal — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:36:57 +0000

Interesting predictions Ronan. I would agree with your assessment of GDP and GNP. I too feel that there will be no change in GDP this year while a 2% fall in GNP is a reasonable expectation given the continued weakness of the domestic Irish economy. It will probably be 2011 before we see GNP rising again on an annual basis.

I wouldn’t be as sure about the forecast for CPI inflation. Given that alcohol prices and prices in general fell in the budget due to excise and VAT changes plus other factors, I would say that CPI will average -1% this year rather than +1%. Deflationary pressures are very strong in this economy and I don’t see them abating too quickly. We should import some inflation this year but that effect is being weakened by the fact that imports are at such low levels.

By: Ronan Lyons

Ronan Lyons — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 11:40:42 +0000

@Joseph
If you’ll permit me to prevaricate, I would expect to see interest rates start to nudge up by mid-year, assuming some sort of solidity in the macro numbers from France and Germany over the coming months. Nothing too big to scare off growth, but enough to remind everyone that interest rates are at amazingly low rates which won’t last forever. However, some weakeness in the macro data from the main eurozone economies may push that reminder back towards the later part of the year.
If I had to go for one, though, I’d go for the first.

That’s the ECB. At home, I’d expect mortgage rates (excluding the special offers you see on ads) to loiter in the 4.5%-5% range, reflecting realism on the part of banks about their medium term cost of borrowing.

By: Joseph

Joseph — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 10:34:56 +0000

Any thoughts on interest rates Ronan?

By: Senan

Senan — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 22:28:17 +0000

Bleak stuff indeed. Don’t know if I’d agree with the 100,000 car registrations. Unless individual dealers step up their ‘scrappage’ campaigns, I’d say the number will be lower. More families will delay replacing the second car, or get rid of it altogether.

By: A time for reflection and prediction « Ireland after NAMA

A time for reflection and prediction « Ireland after NAMA — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 10:48:39 +0000

[...] predictions, I thought I’d highlight one set from outside the mainstream media by economist Ronan Lyons which seems relatively realistic and are focused on 12 established monitoring measures. His [...]

By: 2009 in review and 2010 in preview | Ronan Lyons | Ireland today

2009 in review and 2010 in preview | Ronan Lyons | Ireland today — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 12:51:41 +0000

[...] Read the original post: 2009 in review and 2010 in preview | Ronan Lyons [...]