Comments on: What will Ireland’s government finances be like in 2015? A five-year view on the Budget http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-year-view-on-the-budget/ Irish Economy | World Economy | Property Market | Economic Analysis | Ronan Lyons Thu, 09 Feb 2012 11:57:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ronan Lyons http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-year-view-on-the-budget/comment-page-1/#comment-1308 Ronan Lyons Thu, 07 Jan 2010 11:46:12 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=1082#comment-1308 Looks like the Department of Finance were impressed with my scenario, anyway! http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/20-of-tax-take-to-pay-debt-by-2014-109086.html#ixzz0bryQ6tYC Looks like the Department of Finance were impressed with my scenario, anyway!
http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/20-of-tax-take-to-pay-debt-by-2014-109086.html#ixzz0bryQ6tYC

]]> By: 20% of tax take to pay debt by 2014 - Politics.ie http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-year-view-on-the-budget/comment-page-1/#comment-1304 20% of tax take to pay debt by 2014 - Politics.ie Thu, 07 Jan 2010 10:10:05 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=1082#comment-1304 [...] the Department of Finance just steal it from this guy?! What will Ireland's government finances be like in 2015? A five-year view on the Budget [...] [...] the Department of Finance just steal it from this guy?! What will Ireland's government finances be like in 2015? A five-year view on the Budget [...]

]]> By: Joseph http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-year-view-on-the-budget/comment-page-1/#comment-1276 Joseph Wed, 23 Dec 2009 06:38:31 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=1082#comment-1276 Good stuff Ronan. Clearly shows just how fragile the situation is/will be. It would only take a small change in a couple of parameters for this to look far uglier by 2015. I wonder how our cost of borrowing more money might change if, say, Greece went down the swanee. Anyway, I wish I shared your optimism! Merry Christmas. Good stuff Ronan. Clearly shows just how fragile the situation is/will be. It would only take a small change in a couple of parameters for this to look far uglier by 2015. I wonder how our cost of borrowing more money might change if, say, Greece went down the swanee. Anyway, I wish I shared your optimism! Merry Christmas.

]]> By: Hugh Sheehy http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-year-view-on-the-budget/comment-page-1/#comment-1274 Hugh Sheehy Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:47:43 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=1082#comment-1274 Hmmm, potentially a credible scenario. It's a tad scary that the area between the curves seems to add up to something around €110 billion, onto which must be added the NAMA losses (say €15billion, but let's say 0 for fun) At €110 billion that means that the combined repayments that each actual tax-paying taxpayer will have to make will add up to approx €100k each plus interest, if not more. (~2 million workers, 50% pay no taxes). There goes my pension then, eh? Or my kids' college funds, or decent health care in my old age, or a nice car ever, or a bunch of other things. More brutally, if we look at private sector employees as the only net taxpayers, each of them will actually have to generate a surplus a lot greater than €100k to pay all the debt (since public sector workers are net recipients of tax money). Meantime the public sector will retire on solid pensions while poor mr private will be screwed again. Hmmm, potentially a credible scenario.

It’s a tad scary that the area between the curves seems to add up to something around €110 billion, onto which must be added the NAMA losses (say €15billion, but let’s say 0 for fun)

At €110 billion that means that the combined repayments that each actual tax-paying taxpayer will have to make will add up to approx €100k each plus interest, if not more. (~2 million workers, 50% pay no taxes).

There goes my pension then, eh? Or my kids’ college funds, or decent health care in my old age, or a nice car ever, or a bunch of other things.

More brutally, if we look at private sector employees as the only net taxpayers, each of them will actually have to generate a surplus a lot greater than €100k to pay all the debt (since public sector workers are net recipients of tax money). Meantime the public sector will retire on solid pensions while poor mr private will be screwed again.

]]> By: Ronan Lyons http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-year-view-on-the-budget/comment-page-1/#comment-1272 Ronan Lyons Tue, 22 Dec 2009 12:03:06 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=1082#comment-1272 A couple of quick notes: - DSFA = spending by the Dept of Social & Family Affairs - "GVC" refers to 'Gross Voted Current' expenditure - "GVCap" refers to 'Gross Voted Capital' expenditure (All spending by the Government is either gross or net, voted or non-voted and current or capital.) A couple of quick notes:
- DSFA = spending by the Dept of Social & Family Affairs
- “GVC” refers to ‘Gross Voted Current’ expenditure
- “GVCap” refers to ‘Gross Voted Capital’ expenditure

(All spending by the Government is either gross or net, voted or non-voted and current or capital.)

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