A couple of quick notes:
– DSFA = spending by the Dept of Social & Family Affairs
– “GVC” refers to ‘Gross Voted Current’ expenditure
– “GVCap” refers to ‘Gross Voted Capital’ expenditure
(All spending by the Government is either gross or net, voted or non-voted and current or capital.)
Hugh Sheehy
,
Hmmm, potentially a credible scenario.
It’s a tad scary that the area between the curves seems to add up to something around €110 billion, onto which must be added the NAMA losses (say €15billion, but let’s say 0 for fun)
At €110 billion that means that the combined repayments that each actual tax-paying taxpayer will have to make will add up to approx €100k each plus interest, if not more. (~2 million workers, 50% pay no taxes).
There goes my pension then, eh? Or my kids’ college funds, or decent health care in my old age, or a nice car ever, or a bunch of other things.
More brutally, if we look at private sector employees as the only net taxpayers, each of them will actually have to generate a surplus a lot greater than €100k to pay all the debt (since public sector workers are net recipients of tax money). Meantime the public sector will retire on solid pensions while poor mr private will be screwed again.
Good stuff Ronan. Clearly shows just how fragile the situation is/will be. It would only take a small change in a couple of parameters for this to look far uglier by 2015. I wonder how our cost of borrowing more money might change if, say, Greece went down the swanee. Anyway, I wish I shared your optimism! Merry Christmas.
[…] the Department of Finance just steal it from this guy?! What will Ireland's government finances be like in 2015? A five-year view on the Budget […]
Ronan Lyons ,
A couple of quick notes:
– DSFA = spending by the Dept of Social & Family Affairs
– “GVC” refers to ‘Gross Voted Current’ expenditure
– “GVCap” refers to ‘Gross Voted Capital’ expenditure
(All spending by the Government is either gross or net, voted or non-voted and current or capital.)
Hugh Sheehy ,
Hmmm, potentially a credible scenario.
It’s a tad scary that the area between the curves seems to add up to something around €110 billion, onto which must be added the NAMA losses (say €15billion, but let’s say 0 for fun)
At €110 billion that means that the combined repayments that each actual tax-paying taxpayer will have to make will add up to approx €100k each plus interest, if not more. (~2 million workers, 50% pay no taxes).
There goes my pension then, eh? Or my kids’ college funds, or decent health care in my old age, or a nice car ever, or a bunch of other things.
More brutally, if we look at private sector employees as the only net taxpayers, each of them will actually have to generate a surplus a lot greater than €100k to pay all the debt (since public sector workers are net recipients of tax money). Meantime the public sector will retire on solid pensions while poor mr private will be screwed again.
Joseph ,
Good stuff Ronan. Clearly shows just how fragile the situation is/will be. It would only take a small change in a couple of parameters for this to look far uglier by 2015. I wonder how our cost of borrowing more money might change if, say, Greece went down the swanee. Anyway, I wish I shared your optimism! Merry Christmas.
20% of tax take to pay debt by 2014 - Politics.ie ,
[…] the Department of Finance just steal it from this guy?! What will Ireland's government finances be like in 2015? A five-year view on the Budget […]
Ronan Lyons ,
Looks like the Department of Finance were impressed with my scenario, anyway!
http://www.examiner.ie/ireland/20-of-tax-take-to-pay-debt-by-2014-109086.html#ixzz0bryQ6tYC
Higher emissions? Or empty roads and emigration? | ThinkOrSwim (the Climatechange.ie Blog) ,
[…] This is considered the optimistic scenario. See http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/12/22/what-will-irelands-government-finances-be-like-in-2015-a-five-y… […]