Comments on: The importance of getting NAMA’s core assumptions right http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/ Irish Economy | World Economy | Property Market | Economic Analysis | Ronan Lyons Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:32:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: EU scuppers “long-term economic value” as NAMA’s first tranche goes through | Ronan Lyons http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1573 EU scuppers “long-term economic value” as NAMA’s first tranche goes through | Ronan Lyons Wed, 31 Mar 2010 10:25:42 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1573 [...] original value point. As you can see, it doesn’t appear very cavalier – although the same health warning applies to what happens between now and 2020 as always. Long-term economic value for NAMA loans (1st tranche, [...] [...] original value point. As you can see, it doesn’t appear very cavalier – although the same health warning applies to what happens between now and 2020 as always. Long-term economic value for NAMA loans (1st tranche, [...]

]]> By: Elephant in the room: NAMA’s yield problem hasn’t gone away | Ronan Lyons http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1471 Elephant in the room: NAMA’s yield problem hasn’t gone away | Ronan Lyons Tue, 09 Mar 2010 06:03:48 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1471 [...] as I pointed out in the Irish Times in September, this relies on those running NAMA getting its core assumptions right. In [...] [...] as I pointed out in the Irish Times in September, this relies on those running NAMA getting its core assumptions right. In [...]

]]> By: House prices down by up to 43% from the peak - Page 2 - Politics.ie http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1307 House prices down by up to 43% from the peak - Page 2 - Politics.ie Thu, 07 Jan 2010 11:38:05 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1307 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: NAMA – a developer bailout – Smart Taxes Network http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1162 NAMA – a developer bailout – Smart Taxes Network Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:37:20 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1162 [...] Developers would be paid over the odds for the apartments. If banks are going to be paid above current market value for loans on these properties because it is assumed that the properties will increase in value over the next 10 years, presumably the developers would also benefit from a similar scheme. We would be doubling up on the gamble of Long-Term Economic Value. [...] [...] Developers would be paid over the odds for the apartments. If banks are going to be paid above current market value for loans on these properties because it is assumed that the properties will increase in value over the next 10 years, presumably the developers would also benefit from a similar scheme. We would be doubling up on the gamble of Long-Term Economic Value. [...]

]]> By: A Bad Idea, or ‘How to turn NAMA into a developer bail-out also’ | Ronan Lyons http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1155 A Bad Idea, or ‘How to turn NAMA into a developer bail-out also’ | Ronan Lyons Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:26:13 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1155 [...] Developers would be paid over the odds for the apartments. If banks are going to be paid above current market value for loans on these properties because it is assumed that the properties will increase in value over the next 10 years, presumably the developers would also benefit from a similar scheme. We would be doubling up on the gamble of Long-Term Economic Value. [...] [...] Developers would be paid over the odds for the apartments. If banks are going to be paid above current market value for loans on these properties because it is assumed that the properties will increase in value over the next 10 years, presumably the developers would also benefit from a similar scheme. We would be doubling up on the gamble of Long-Term Economic Value. [...]

]]> By: Another look at yields on Irish property, for the benefit of NAMA | Ronan Lyons http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1125 Another look at yields on Irish property, for the benefit of NAMA | Ronan Lyons Fri, 16 Oct 2009 08:01:47 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1125 [...] the analyses showing potential flaws with the long-term economic value (I have two modest examples here and here) was zero. The estimate of long-term economic value is explained just as before: It is [...] [...] the analyses showing potential flaws with the long-term economic value (I have two modest examples here and here) was zero. The estimate of long-term economic value is explained just as before: It is [...]

]]> By: NAMA’s Assumption @ Don’t Panic http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1121 NAMA’s Assumption @ Don’t Panic Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:51:50 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1121 [...] projections. He suggests that they are grossly optimistic. His article is reproduced on his blog here. Well worth a read. [...] [...] projections. He suggests that they are grossly optimistic. His article is reproduced on his blog here. Well worth a read. [...]

]]> By: John O'Connor http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1044 John O'Connor Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:01:54 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1044 Agree with Caelen's points here. the underlying assumption of any equity investment is that if the investment is not worth anything, you get nothing back. Without government support the banks have no equity value (bond holders will get something back). As the government and bondholders are the only true stakeholders at this stage, they perhaps they should control the equity too. on the other hand ... Interestingly, over 50% of the share capital of the main irish banks are owned by small retail customers (joe public) where it used to be only about 15%. a lot of guys bought in for a few cent and are making a packet - in doing this they have out-manouevered the pension funds who are now trying to buy back in, thus pushing the price up. Agree with Caelen’s points here. the underlying assumption of any equity investment is that if the investment is not worth anything, you get nothing back.

Without government support the banks have no equity value (bond holders will get something back).

As the government and bondholders are the only true stakeholders at this stage, they perhaps they should control the equity too.

on the other hand …

Interestingly, over 50% of the share capital of the main irish banks are owned by small retail customers (joe public) where it used to be only about 15%. a lot of guys bought in for a few cent and are making a packet – in doing this they have out-manouevered the pension funds who are now trying to buy back in, thus pushing the price up.

]]> By: Greg http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1040 Greg Tue, 29 Sep 2009 18:57:21 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1040 Like the graph. Pity it can't be shown on irisheconomy.ie Like the graph.

Pity it can’t be shown on irisheconomy.ie

]]> By: NAMA’s Core Assumptions – Smart Taxes Network http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/09/25/the-importance-of-getting-namas-core-assumptions-right/comment-page-1/#comment-1038 NAMA’s Core Assumptions – Smart Taxes Network Mon, 28 Sep 2009 10:07:03 +0000 http://www.ronanlyons.com/?p=943#comment-1038 [...] An opinion piece was published by Ronan Lyons in Friday’s Irish Times, it can be read in full on Ronan’s blog. [...] [...] An opinion piece was published by Ronan Lyons in Friday’s Irish Times, it can be read in full on Ronan’s blog. [...]

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