Ronan Lyons | Personal Website
Ronan Lyons | Personal Website

The importance of getting NAMA’s core assumptions right

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What countries can you buy ambien over the counter ?" asks an ad for the drug in Chicago Tribune. A picture of half-naked man with a half-glass of wine on his lap and a man in an apron on the street corner says, "Can you buy Ambien as a prescription drug? Yes". And on the second page are three different places a person could buy the drug at. The American medical community, however, is divided. The AMA, largest organisation of doctors What countries can you buy ambien over the counter in America, opposes the legislation and has published "Opposing Ambien for Prescription" statements claiming that the drug is highly effective without producing any side effects for the majority of patients. "Its use is safe and has not demonstrated addiction potential in human beings," they write. "Ambien is safe for many other medicines and has no inherent toxicity from other sources." The AMA's support for law means that Ambien has had considerable coverage in USA Today, Washington Post, New Jersey Times and Newsday of New York, for example. In the USA, as most countries, doctors are in the firing line when they speak out against prescribing medications "off-label", or a medication on the theory it would help a patient but not be harmful for other people. That's what happens with the "off" label, which doctors can apply to drugs that are proven be ineffective and unsafe to take in a particular patient. Ambien is the most notorious off-label use of this medical principle. In June 1980, a 21-year-old woman killed herself after she took the drug without her parents' knowledge. The FDA banned it from market within three months. Ambien has also been mentioned repeatedly on radio and television talkshows, with "doctor" doctors such as George Lantz and Milton Diamond calling in to debate the drug and its legality. "It seems that the American physician who dares to challenge the powerful influence Zolpidem hexal 10 mg 50 stück of AMA is quickly silenced and censored," writes Andrew Weil, in the "Facts Matter" project on how the USA medical class silences dissent, in his latest blog entry. "One can be sure, that if I dared mention Ambien is safe for many other medicines, I would be accused of "losing my job"—or worse," he writes, quoting Dr David Heber that, "Ambien really is not a good drug": Ambien has been reported to cause suicidal thinking, extreme fatigue, impaired memory, dizziness, and low blood pressure, with few serious complaints being reported. When used at prescribed doses, it has also been reported to increase heart rate, low uric acid levels, liver enzymes, and possibly can worsen symptoms of depression. As described by Dr David H. Heber, an MD who has can you buy ambien over the counter in italy studied the drug, Ambien "does nothing of value; and even if it did its main effects would be secondary to its major side effect, insomnia. In the "Facts Matter" project on suppression of health information, Dr Heber says the AMA and drugmakers are engaged in information control, by controlling how health information is viewed and by controlling how the patient hears about and takes medication: There is a tremendous amount of money involved in making health care the exclusive purview of physician and by keeping out doctors medical researchers who believe in holistic solutions to illnesses, they are cutting out a major source of profits which comes from patients who want to know if their headaches and stomach cramps are caused by their diet or a foreign substance in the water supply. I asked him why Ambien didn't deserve the condemnation drugmakers and AMA applied to other, similar drugs that were deemed potentially unsafe to take for prescribed use, and he explained it all had a lot to do with fear. The fear with a drug like Ambien, he told me, is that the public will stop taking it, and doctors won't prescribe it. "The fear is real," he said, "but the fear is a that's all around us." Fear, he concluded, is the one thing AMA and its support for medical censorship have in abundance. The AMA has even taken unusual step of writing a statement affirming that Ambien is safe and not addictive. The AMA has also released a statement explaining that the drug's side effects such as sleepiness, nausea, tremors, weakness, hallucinations and extreme fatigue "are a small fraction of its typical benefits." The statement also says patients with psychiatric symptoms or those on large doses shouldn't use it. It's a similar statement to what we'd hear from a doctor giving out antibiotics, they explain. Ambien's inventor, William Klug, told the US Drug Enforcement Administration that in his tests, "Ambien is one of the most safe drugs on market. It produces little, or no, adverse effects." As to the rare side effects like sleepiness and tremors that some psychiatrists others claim are present in the drug, he.
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  • Henry Withinshaw ,

    Ronan – Great work, simply put and very insightful again.

    It would be fantastic if at some point the effect of unemployment, economic lag, likely higher interest rates and likely increased consumer credit default could also be put into the mix by some economists. I’ve seen plenty on demographics and house prices but that seems to me but a small part of the jigsaw. It would be fascinating to see a thoroughly worked best / expected / worst case scenario taking all these factors into account, and then a probability of achieving 10% over 10 years. A tough ask I know. I also know what my instinct tells me!

    • Caelen ,

      Perhaps you can help me here but I simply can’t understand why the government aren’t taking a bigger stake in the bank as part of NAMA. It is my understanding that the banks are sunk without NAMA. Under normal market conditions this would mean that the shareholders would loose everything. Why are we protecting the shareholder so much.

      I understand that the government doesn’t want to nationalize and although I don’t necessarily buy the argument, what I don’t udnerstand is why we aren’t taking anything off of the shareholders as part of NAMA. Why don’t we do NAMA on the conditions that the Government get a majority stake in the bank.

      This would answer two of NAMA’s problems. It would expose the government to any potential upside and would increase the government position to ensure that the banks start lending.

      What is your opinion?

      • Dreaded_Estate ,

        Great work again Ronan

        • Lorcan ,

          Great to see it being pointed out that any further falls in prices make the 10% target very much harder to achieve. It is generally being portrayed in the media as if a 10% increase any time in the next 10 years would be sufficient!

          • NAMA’s Core Assumptions – Smart Taxes Network ,

            […] An opinion piece was published by Ronan Lyons in Friday’s Irish Times, it can be read in full on Ronan’s blog. […]

            • Greg ,

              Like the graph.

              Pity it can’t be shown on

              • John O'Connor ,

                Agree with Caelen’s points here. the underlying assumption of any equity investment is that if the investment is not worth anything, you get nothing back.

                Without government support the banks have no equity value (bond holders will get something back).

                As the government and bondholders are the only true stakeholders at this stage, they perhaps they should control the equity too.

                on the other hand …

                Interestingly, over 50% of the share capital of the main irish banks are owned by small retail customers (joe public) where it used to be only about 15%. a lot of guys bought in for a few cent and are making a packet – in doing this they have out-manouevered the pension funds who are now trying to buy back in, thus pushing the price up.

                • NAMA’s Assumption @ Don’t Panic ,

                  […] projections. He suggests that they are grossly optimistic. His article is reproduced on his blog here. Well worth a read. […]

                  • Another look at yields on Irish property, for the benefit of NAMA | Ronan Lyons ,

                    […] the analyses showing potential flaws with the long-term economic value (I have two modest examples here and here) was zero. The estimate of long-term economic value is explained just as before: It is […]

                    • A Bad Idea, or ‘How to turn NAMA into a developer bail-out also’ | Ronan Lyons ,

                      […] Developers would be paid over the odds for the apartments. If banks are going to be paid above current market value for loans on these properties because it is assumed that the properties will increase in value over the next 10 years, presumably the developers would also benefit from a similar scheme. We would be doubling up on the gamble of Long-Term Economic Value. […]

                      • NAMA – a developer bailout – Smart Taxes Network ,

                        […] Developers would be paid over the odds for the apartments. If banks are going to be paid above current market value for loans on these properties because it is assumed that the properties will increase in value over the next 10 years, presumably the developers would also benefit from a similar scheme. We would be doubling up on the gamble of Long-Term Economic Value. […]

                        • House prices down by up to 43% from the peak - Page 2 - ,

                          […] […]

                          • Elephant in the room: NAMA’s yield problem hasn’t gone away | Ronan Lyons ,

                            […] as I pointed out in the Irish Times in September, this relies on those running NAMA getting its core assumptions right. In […]

                            • EU scuppers “long-term economic value” as NAMA’s first tranche goes through | Ronan Lyons ,

                              […] original value point. As you can see, it doesn’t appear very cavalier – although the same health warning applies to what happens between now and 2020 as always. Long-term economic value for NAMA loans (1st tranche, […]

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