Excellent, Ronan. One minor point – I would imagine there’s a difference in supply elasticity across the property markets. Sellers of holiday homes in Roscommon, for instance, might be much more elastic (chancing their arms another words) than homeowners in Dublin who really need to sell.
This is to say a Daft listing in Lovely Leitrim might not be as ‘real’ as a Daft listing in Clonsilla.
[…] Ireland’s property overhang: Homeowners in Roscommon, Cavan and Leitrim beware […]
Niall
,
Assuming substantial net emigration the trend can only get much worse.
I wonder is it possible to provide an analysis within Dublin, say by postal district? I wonder for example what proportion of housing units in Dublin 1 & 2 are currently available. I would suggest that empty units in the docks area would rival Drumshambo!
Good point, something we may (did I just jinx it?) be able to do some sort of analysis on, e.g. looking for particular property types or keywords in the description – ‘detached house on lake’ versus ‘apartment suitable for investors’.
The opposite may also be the case, i.e. as per above, lots of the units were bought not as holiday homes but as rental units, and are now suffering heavily from falling income and falling value…
Thanks for the comment. I’ll have to take a look at the Census data, but in theory, it’s certainly possible.
We may have to look only at second-hand homes (and therefore the 2006 Census stock is the appropriate benchmark), as new developments are notoriously difficult to capture with accuracy and may lead to odd conclusions at such a high level of granularity.
[…] still in single digit territory. Or perhaps they think that they’re more sheltered, because the overhang of property is not as severe as it is in the Midlands/North-West? Answers on a […]
[…] 12 years supply in just 7 years. To give a regional flavour, based on insights gleaned from the property overhang per county figures I calculated in December, I split Ireland into three regions – Dublin, Connacht/Ulster and the rest of the country. (The […]
[…] mock, there is something in this from a long-term perspective. I have argued before on this blog – in December and again in February – that the ‘overhang’ of property looks a lot worse, even with […]
Graham ,
Excellent, Ronan. One minor point – I would imagine there’s a difference in supply elasticity across the property markets. Sellers of holiday homes in Roscommon, for instance, might be much more elastic (chancing their arms another words) than homeowners in Dublin who really need to sell.
This is to say a Daft listing in Lovely Leitrim might not be as ‘real’ as a Daft listing in Clonsilla.
Ireland: the Britney Spears economy? The Daft Report (2008 in review) « Ronan Lyons | Blog ,
[…] Ireland’s property overhang: Homeowners in Roscommon, Cavan and Leitrim beware […]
Niall ,
Assuming substantial net emigration the trend can only get much worse.
I wonder is it possible to provide an analysis within Dublin, say by postal district? I wonder for example what proportion of housing units in Dublin 1 & 2 are currently available. I would suggest that empty units in the docks area would rival Drumshambo!
ronanlyons ,
Hi Graham,
Good point, something we may (did I just jinx it?) be able to do some sort of analysis on, e.g. looking for particular property types or keywords in the description – ‘detached house on lake’ versus ‘apartment suitable for investors’.
The opposite may also be the case, i.e. as per above, lots of the units were bought not as holiday homes but as rental units, and are now suffering heavily from falling income and falling value…
ronanlyons ,
Hi Niall,
Thanks for the comment. I’ll have to take a look at the Census data, but in theory, it’s certainly possible.
We may have to look only at second-hand homes (and therefore the 2006 Census stock is the appropriate benchmark), as new developments are notoriously difficult to capture with accuracy and may lead to odd conclusions at such a high level of granularity.
Westmeath says ‘Watch out below’! An updated heat-map of Ireland’s property market « Ronan Lyons | Blog ,
[…] still in single digit territory. Or perhaps they think that they’re more sheltered, because the overhang of property is not as severe as it is in the Midlands/North-West? Answers on a […]
Intergenerational outsourcing and the consequences of building 10% too much: A look at Ireland’s property market in 2013 « Ronan Lyons | Blog ,
[…] 12 years supply in just 7 years. To give a regional flavour, based on insights gleaned from the property overhang per county figures I calculated in December, I split Ireland into three regions – Dublin, Connacht/Ulster and the rest of the country. (The […]
The first cut is the deepest - Dublin’s falls and Ireland’s property paradox « Ronan Lyons | Blog ,
[…] mock, there is something in this from a long-term perspective. I have argued before on this blog – in December and again in February – that the ‘overhang’ of property looks a lot worse, even with […]